Could Freeman Alter Correa's Market?

Freeman: Catching Yankee Interest?
(c) Gannett News
Be wary of what you read during the lockout when baseball writers must make deadlines even though nothing much is happening (above water, that is). For weeks, the general consensus has been that the chief suitor for Houston all-star shortstop Carlos Correa in free agency would be the New York Yankees. After all, the Yankees can outspend whomever they want and Correa would certainly be an upgrade over Gleyber Torres, last year's shortstop.

However, a report from Jon Heyman of the MLB Network indicates the Yankees, unsold at Correa's asking price, may instead opt to use that cash burning holes in their pockets to pursue Braves' first baseman Freddie Freeman. The 32-year-old is said to want a six-year deal worth $200 million (that would average to $33.33 million per year) whereas 27-year-old Correa would prefer ten years between $320 and $360 million (that would average between $32 million and $36 million per year).

Offensively, Freeman would likely outproduce Correa. Over the past five seasons, Freeman has averaged 27 homers per year (including the 2020 season) and produced a .940 OPS. Correa, in that same time, has powered 18 homers per season and an .841 OPS.

On the other hand, Carlos plays a premium defensive position (averaging 1.8 defensive WAR per year according to Baseball-Reference.com as opposed to Freeman's -0.5 defensive WAR average at first). It's an apples-to-oranges comparison but the bottom-line is Freeman provides more bang for the buck and the Yanks have a hole at first base that needs to be filled.

The problem is that even the blue-blood Yankees can't afford to add them both, not with the likes of Gerrit Cole, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton already on the books. The lefty-hitting Freeman would certainly help a righthanded-heavy batting lineup. Signing Freeman would mean a shorter-term commitment and less risk than a 10-year deal for a shortstop.

Not to mention that Correa and the Yankees have been at arms length during the negotiations. First, there's the spillover from the 2017 sign-stealing scandal and the war of words over who's cheating and for how long. Secondly, Correa took a swipe at Yankee legend Derek Jeter late last year, implying that the New York shortstop won many of his Gold Gloves for defensive prowess on reputation rather than production.

It was presumed by most that Freeman would return to the Braves but Freeman turned down their initial offer of five years for $135 million - quite a large gap from what Freeman is asking.

To complicate matters, the first base market also has free agent Anthony Rizzo, who ended with the Yankees last year after a mid-season trade, and the expected availability of Matt Olson in trade from Oakland. But Freeman would certainly turn heads in Gotham in a way that the other two would not. Plus the Yankees have let their crosstown rival Mets make the big headlines so far this winter and the Bronx Bombers would rather take back the spotlight.

If the Yankees sign Freeman, that removes one more suitor for Correa who has seen his market shrink as other shortstops found homes. Carlos and Trevor Story, recently of the Rockies, are the last two major shortstops on the market although other less-expensive veterans will be there for whomever is left.

It may all come down to whether the Astros can get creative with Carlos' new agent, the infamous Scott Boras, or whether another team will come up with the sort of money that Correa requires.

Of course, nothing becomes official until the lockout ends. This week, the owners sought out federal mediation but the Players' Union refused. Soon, pitchers and catchers will begin training camps which will still happen for any players who are NOT on a big league 40-man roster or received MLBPA representation. That means fans may eventually see a lot of AA and AAA games on tv if the lockout lasts into the normal regular season. MLB, which now controls the minor leagues, recently announced they are expanding AAA seasons to 150 games instead of the traditional 144.

-Bob Hulsey