Coming off a season in 2001 in which the Astros wrested their fourth division title in six years away from the St. Louis Cardinals, hopes were high in 2002 that the younger talent the Houston organization had nutured in the farm system and acquired through trade--Richard Hidalgo, Daryle Ward, Adam Everett, Morgan Ensberg, Wade Miller and Roy Oswalt--were ready to shoulder more of the load in the season, as several of the Astros' stars--Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, and Shane Reynolds--began the slow, often frustrating transition to the later stages of their careers.

At first, it appeared that the young talent was going to do just fine. Wade Miller had nearly a perfect Spring Training, and Everett and Ensberg gave hints in ST that they were ready to take over at SS and 3B respectively. But the good work of March all but vanished in April. Miller was felled by a pinched nerve in his neck and missed nearly two months of work. Neither Ensberg nor Everett could hit big-league pitching when it counted. Daryle Ward, given the job in LF when Moises Alou was allowed to walk away to the Cubs, did a league-average job of hitting, but didn't provide nearly the power that the organization hoped for out of the # 5 spot with only 12 homers, and he proved to be the major leagues' worst defensive left fielder by a wide margin. Hidalgo, counted on to come somewhere close to his 2000 season of 44 homers and 122 RBI or at least to his 2001 figures of 19 homers and 80 RBI, was nowhere close to either one, hitting only .235, with 15 homers and 48 RBI.

When one couples the lack of punch in the middle of Houston's batting order with the loss of Miller and the understandable adjustment the Astros' bullpen had to make to the way in which new manager Jimy Williams likes to use his relievers, it's easy to see how and why Houston got off to such a rocky start. Faced with a tough early-season schedule against a Cardinals' ballclub that used ST mostly to get itself and its pitching rotation set for those early encounters, the Astros found themselves off by a fraction of an inch pitching at the plate, a half-second too slow swinging the bats, and a step too late on defense in those games against St. Louis. Houston lost 9 of 12 games versus the Cardinals in April and May, with the lost games in the last two three-game series being by a total of seven runs. Those close losses were enough to put the Astros into a nosedive from which they could not recover. They were, as I wrote in early June, finis for the year, although Gregg Zaun's pinch-hit grand-slam homer in the bottom of the ninth against the Diamondbacks on June 27th proved to be the season's most memorable moment and the spark for a long stretch of good play that got the club up to and over the .500 mark. Again, however, the Cardinals were the benchmark by which to judge the Astros' season, and Houston, with only a small chance to get back into the NL Central race in September, proved no match for the pitching depth of St. Louis. The Astros split four at home to the Cards over the long weekend of Sept. 12-15, with back-of-the-rotation man Peter Munro being edged by Woody Williams 2-1 in the pivotal Saturday afternoon game. The following weekend in St. Louis, the # 4 and # 5 starters were once again defeated, as the Cardinals bested Munro and Kirk Saarloos on Friday and Sunday to end the Astros' hopes of making the playoffs. There were other irritating and often inexplicable failures within the division (going only 9-8 against the woeful Brewers did not help the Astros at all), but by the end of the season--a three-game sweep on the road against the eventual NL champion Giants--Houston stood a decisive thirteen games in back of St. Louis, with some major overhauling to do in the off-season.

There were a few good individual performances in 2002. Miller recovered from his pinched nerve and posted a terrific 15-4 record. Roy Oswalt followed his splendid 14-3 rookie season with a fine 19-9 campaign. Lance Berkman established himself as one of baseball's best hitters by smashing 42 homers and leading the NL with 128 RBI. Geoff Blum, acquired by trade from Montreal, proved himself to be a good hitter and a better-than-expected fielder at 3B. SS Julio Lugo was having a solid if not spectacular season at the plate and in the field before getting his arm broken on a Kerry Wood pitch in Chicago around midseason, and Jose Vizcaino, in picking up for him, continued a surprisingly-good year for himself at the plate. Octavio Dotel and Billy Wagner once again proved to be a deadly late-game duo in the Astros' bullpen.

Beyond these noteworthy performances, however, the Astros as a collective unit proved to be less than the sum of their parts. Middle relief, stocked as it was with farm system hurlers and journeymen pitchers acquired at bargain prices, had moments of excellence, including a workhorse season from Ricky Stone, but was often ineffectual, despite sharing in a 3.81 bullpen ERA, the eighth-best such mark in the league. The offense was a hundred runs short of what it had been in 2001, and failed too often in close-and-late situations and hitter's pitch counts. (Ward hit .239 in close-and-late situations and only .172 with runners in scoring position and two out. Hidalgo hit .211 close-and-late, .174 with runners at 1B and 2B, and only .143 when the count was 2-0.)

The Astros, though, have great hopes that the offense in 2003 will be their best since 1998. Gerry Hunsicker has in recent days been engaged in a good-natured public relations spin about the offense over on Astros.com and in the press and on radio, saying that if a team hopes to contend for a title, it has to have a powerful offense. I could have sworn I heard him say a few years ago that if a team hopes to contend for a title, it has to have pitching. In reality, I believe Hunsicker privately inclines to the latter view. The praise of the Astros' hitting is serving at the moment to deflect most of the serious questions that must be answered in ST about spots 3-5 in the rotation and middle relief in the bullpen. This is not to say, however, that the praise of the Astros' offense is not merited; it's just that we've heard this particular PR spin before. Back in 1998, when Moises Alou was acquired from the Marlins, everyone close to the ballclub knew it was going to hit. The question was, how good was the pitching going to be? So it is in 2003. The Astros are going to hit. Spots 2-6 in the order (Biggio Berkman, Bagwell, Jeff Kent, Hidalgo) figure to be, collectively, as tough a row of hitters to face as there is in the National League. If Houston can get better OBAs out of spots 1, 7, and 8 (Lugo, Blum, and Ausmus), the offense could be better than improved; it could be great.

Assuming that there is some improvement in the offense (particularly from Hidalgo, who must rebound to no less than league average in hitting, homers, and RBI), Houston will go as far as its pitching will take it. Nothing is certain in baseball, and few things are certain in the empirical world. Yet, there are things well enough established in baseball to call them facts. Two of those facts are that, as long as they maintain their health, Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller will put up a lot of wins at the front of Houston's rotation. These two hurlers are as solid and comforting a pair of pitchers to Houston fans as Reynolds and Mike Hampton were in '98. Yet the Astros will stand or fall in 2003 based on what the back-end of the rotation does all season long in support of its mainstays. Gerry Hunsicker knows this, and he has taken what steps he can to strengthen that rotation. The press has been filled all off-season with stories about how the New York Yankees are stockpiling pitchers; but Hunsicker, in his mid-range budget way, has been doing exactly the same thing. Some of his low-risk gambles in recent years--Kent Bottenfield, Doug Brocail, Hipolito Pichardo--have failed so strikingly that the groans from Astros country were audible when Hunsicker began to repeat that signing pattern this past off-season. But the sheer volume of new pitchers who will be in camp this Spring--Jared Fernandez, Jesus Sanchez, Brian Moehler, Anthony Telford, Chris Gissell--in addition to those already known to the Astros--Jeriome Robertson, Kirk Saarloos, Peter Munro, Tim Redding, Scott Linebrink, Brandon Puffer--may give Jimy Williams and Burt Hooten a fighting chance to put together an effective rotation that will last most of the season, and give the bullpen a bit of versatility and depth.

The Astros have fewer questions about their everyday eight this season than they've had in the past. Geoff Blum is Houston's 3B; there will be no battle with Morgan Ensberg. Julio Lugo has claimed the SS job. Jeff Kent will be at 2B and Jeff Bagwell remains the anchor at 1B. Brad Ausmus is still a fine defensive catcher. Craig Biggio may have qualms about it, but few of us do: he is a good enough athlete to play CF, and his ability to do so may, in the long run, allow him to be fresher at the plate. Lance Berkman moves back over to the shorter range of LF, and Richard Hidalgo will track 'em down in RF. Whatever Hidalgo's offensive output may be in 2003, no one questions his defensive range or his arm.

There are those who like competition in ST; the battles for jobs, they say, make everyone better. I am not one of those who feel that way. I prefer a veteran ballclub, with most of the issues settled before camp opens. The Astros this year appear to be that kind of team. Whether they win or lose in the exhibition season is irrelevant; far more important will be their efforts to get ready for the regular season. They face much the same schedule this year as they did last, with lots of early games against two teams that gave them fits last season: a good Cardinals' club, and a not-so-good Brewers' team. I would expect (indeed, I would insist, if I were the Houston owner or GM) that Jimy Williams will manage with a firmer, more confident hand, and that he will put more pressure on his club to be ready for those important divisonal games in April and May. Houston may be a better team than it was last year, but it is not yet so good that it can afford to lose 9 out 12 again to St. Louis, and fall behind in the NL Central race.

I have taken a good look at the Astros' 40-man roster, including as many of the non-roster invitees as I think have a legitimate shot to contribute to the club at some point, and have written about them below. Part One discusses the probable Opening Day lineup. Part Two, to be presented on Friday, tackles the starting pitching rotation, the bullpen, the bench, and a few players in the minors who may be called upon to help the Astros from time to time during the year. Part Three of the preview, to be presented on Sunday, offers a breakdown of the season schedule series by series and a detailed forecast of how I think the 2003 season will unfold for Houston.

The Starting Eight

The group is starting to show some age (Biggio, Bagwell, Kent, Ausmus), but these four are still greatly productive and figure to remain so, to varying degrees, in 2003. The other four (Berkman, Blum, Hidalgo, and Lugo) are entering their peak years as players. Berkman has become an All-Star at the plate. If Blum and Lugo continue to develop as they did last year with regular playing time, and if Richard Hidalgo conquors the physical and mental challenges of playing the game and carrying the expectations that come with a big contract, then by June the Astros could be fielding one of the top three lineups in the National League, along with Philadelphia and Atlanta.

Initial figures in parentheses are a player's statistics from 2002; those at the end of the comments are a projection of what we can expect in 2003.

Catcher - Brad Ausmus (.257/6/50)
Ausmus rebounded from a subpar 2001 to enjoy a year close to his career average of .260. The wear-and-tear of catching nearly every day may begin to show on him this season as it has not in the past, but it's also possible that if his backup Gregg Zaun can give him perhaps five additional days off, Ausmus could show slight improvement in his numbers because of the more productive batting order ahead of him. Ausmus learned some lessons last season about taking the ball to RF, a pattern he began late in 2001. That opposite-field approach robs Ausmus of what little power he has (he has never been a great power threat, even in a small ballpark), but it pays him back in overall offensive performance--moving runners along, keeping rallies going. He is likely to get even more opportunities to do those sorts of things in 2003. Defensively, Ausmus is the NL's Gold Glove catcher, but there is one note of caution about his defense that should be sounded: his "caught stealing" percentage dropped to .323 in 2002, down from .477 the previous year. His catcher's ERA, however, was lower in 2002 (3.82) than it was in 2001--testimony, I believe, to the sharpness of Ausmus's pitch calls and the confidence his pitchers have in him. There will be new men for Ausmus to handle this season, especially in the bullpen, so we might anticipate a few rough outings by the 'pen in April, but one new guy he's handled before: Brian Moehler, with Detroit. Assuming that Moehler is healthy in the first place, Ausmus will help make Moehler's transition to pitching in a smaller home ballpark easier than it might otherwise be, and bring him closer to the team's goal of double-digit wins out of the # 4 spot. Projection: (.251/8/48).

First Base - Jeff Bagwell (.291/31/98)
We all know the end of Bagwell's terrific career is coming, but may we pause for a moment and suggest to ourselves that it may be farther down the road than we think? It's easy to say that Bagwell had an off-year in 2002, but "off" as compared to what? 1994? Sure, but that was nine years ago. Off year or not, Bagwell was within shouting distance of .300, still hit over 30 homers and barely missed driving in a hundred runs. His OPS of .919 stacks up pretty well next to Berkman's .982, and his close-and-late BA of .263 is quite respectable. For an old man, friends, Bagwell is still an offensive force; and one of the most optimistic notes I can sound in this preview is my belief that, in some respects, Bagwell will have a better season this year than he did last year. Last year, Bagwell was pitched to very carefully or pitched around many times because the opposition knew it had easier outs coming up in Ward and Hidalgo. Those situations aren't going to occur this season, not with Jeff Kent sittin' in the # 5 hole. Teams will have to bring it to Bagwell more often, and he may send a few more of those pitches to the seats as a result. But because Bagwell will see more pitches in '03, we all may get a better read on how far and how fast Bagwell will slip as a hitter, either this year or next. Bagwell's bat speed was a concern for me going into last season, and it's a concern for me this year, too; but it would surprise the daylights out of me if it suddenly became an issue early in the season. Bagwell actually struck out five fewer times in 2002 than he did in 2001, so even a slight increase in his K figure this season from 2001 is not necessarily cause for alarm. Two seasons ago, Bagwell hit for a slightly lower BA but slugged 39 home runs. The same thing is likely to happen this season. It's a trade-off the Astros will take. On defense, one has heard a lot of rumors this off-season that Bagwell's right shoulder is less painful than it has been. If that improvement in his condition is real, it may help him most of all on throws to 2B and 3B on grounders and bunt plays, to say nothing of what a pain-free batting swing might accomplish. Yet, Bagwell is Bagwell: whether he's hurt or feeling great, he gets more out of his body and gives more to his team every day in sharp, well-judged play than any other Astro out there. He plays a position that lowers his risk to injury and, as long as MLB doesn't ban the glove he wears and thereby make him vulnerable to breaking his hand on an inside pitch, my feeling is he can go as long as he wants to and he'll be productive to the very end. Projection: (.285/35/101)

Second Base - Jeff Kent (.313/37/108)
This past December, Kent ran away from the San Francisco Giants to join the circus--the Cirque Du Solei troupe that performs under the retractable stadium roof in downtown Houston and specializes in the death-defying acts of falling off treadmills, plunging out of deerstands and eating two Double Whoppers at once every five days. Kent's specialty is doing cartwheels off a motorcycle, so he'll fit right into the program. He should fit the Astros in other ways, too. He's hit well in road games for the Giants in Houston, so there's no reason to think he won't do well in 81 games there. As I said in the days after Kent was signed, his principal value to Houston figures to be as an RBI man. If Kent can crack the 40-homer plateau using the Crawford Boxes as target practice, well and good; fans will cheer every one of 'em. But mark it down: Kent will be worth every penny the Astros have spent on him if his RBI total is between 110 and 115 and if about 20 of his homers are hit on the road. The point of acquiring Kent was not only to make the Astros a tougher offense at home, but also to make them a tougher offense night in and night out away from Houston. For this season, at least, to say nothing of 2004 or 2005, there should be far fewer men left on base, and far fewer rallies that grind to a halt in the # 5 and # 6 spots. Kent does not walk as much as Bagwell, but that could change if, as I anticipate, Jimy Williams drops him lower in the order in Houston. If Kent doesn't walk much (52 in 2002), he strikes out no more than Bagwell does (they both had 101 strikeouts last year). That particular statistical similarity to Bagwell stretches back several seasons. Offensively, then--and I know how overstated this may sound--it's hard for me to see how Kent could fail to help the Astros. Even if he should fall off significantly from the numbers of his 2002 season, he's not hitting in Pac Bell Park any more. Homers ought to be easy to come by, and he'll have plenty of RBI chances. Defensively, he's average, and may begin to show at some point the same lack of range that prompted in part Biggio's move to the outfield, but the Astros are not paying him for his glove; they're paying him for his bat. He may press some at the plate in April, seeking to please the fans and management, but he should be in gear by May. (Projection: .297/31/98).

Shortstop - Julio Lugo (.261/8/35)
Lugo played in only 88 games in 2002 before Kerry Wood broke his right forearm with a pitch in Chicago, an incident I'm still conflicted about to this day. (Intellectually, I know Wood didn't do it intentionally; but the game context suggests otherwise; and that pitch, if you saw it, bore in on Lugo with the same relentless up-and-in movement that a Mike Torrez fastball pursued another Houston SS in 1984, Dickie Thon.) But those 88 games were impressive enough to make me believe that Lugo could be a critical figure in the Astros' success or lack of success in 2003. I've already suggested several weeks ago that Richard Hidalgo is the key to this year's lineup. If he has a solid year in all phases of the game, the Astros could be formidable, indeed. But include Lugo at the top of the lineup as a key figure, too. He needs to improve his OBA of .332 (.400 would be wonderful, but .380 will still impact the offense) and raise his BA by ten points, but those goals are within his reach. What excites me about Lugo is not only the possibility of marked improvement in the less-flashy elements of offense, but the strides he has made defensively. He was much smoother at SS last season than he was the season before. If you're not especially persuaded by that comment, consider that his fielding percentage has improved every year since 2000--.951, .964, .976. Lugo should come to ST this season more relaxed and confident than he ever has before, knowing the SS job is his. He may have some trouble breaking in his new partner at 2B (or is that the other way around?) but if they mesh well enough, the Astros probably will see a slight increase in the number of double plays turned in 2003. Projection: (.265/8/42).

Third Base - Geoff Blum (.283/10/52)
Blum is another candidate to surprise us with a breakout year this season. Last year was his first full shot as an everyday player and he proved to be an even better player than we thought he'd be, especially on defense. He may not be capable of producing great numbers, but hitting seventh in the order the Astros have, he won't have to produce great numbers to be effective. An increase of 10-15 RBI is not out of the question, although if Richard Hidalgo has another bad season, Jimy Williams will likely have to slide Blum into the # 6 spot, and Blum's hitting might suffer as a result of that move. Projection: (.270/11/60).

Right Field - Richard Hidalgo (.235/15/48)
Hidalgo will make the difference this year between the Astros being slighly improved over what they were a year ago and being one of the NL's elite teams. No is asking that he repeat his year of 2000. He cannot do so and he will not. But he can approach 2001 again. His numbers then (.275/19/80) would look mighty sweet in the # 6 spot now and would, of course, represent a significant upward turn from his horrible 2002 campaign. He can do it; he can be at least that good again; but Hidalgo must prove he can do it all over again. He's back to square one in his career. No one is going to assume any more that the RF job is his eternally, not with Jason Lane chomping at the bit to get out there and play. Whatever it was that affected Hidalgo's swing last season to the point where he could not get around on the fastball and missed hanging sliders that he crushed in 2000, whether it was excess weight (a story that, false or not, was still floating in respectable journalistic circles as late as last week: CBS Sportsline.com referred to him on the 10th as a "pudgy Venezuelan" who had lost weight) or a training program that left his muscles extraordinarily tight--whatever it was--Hidalgo's period of grace with the fans is now over. Nothing but solid results will be expected from him, and no excuses will be accepted from him (although he hasn't offered any), or from management on his behalf. He deserves our sympathy for the very unfortunate carjacking during which he was wounded in the left arm this past autumn, but he has recovered physically, if not mentally, from that incident. It is time for him to play baseball, and nothing will heal his spirit like recovering his zest for the game. In simplest terms, Hidalgo must teach himself again how to go out each night and have fun doing what he does. There are players in the major leagues that would make a bargain with the Devil to have a right arm like Hidalgo's; there are players in both leagues who have never hit a fair ball as hard as most of the ones Hidalgo has hit foul. When Hidalgo is at his finest, a pitch from the mound is a thing to be leaped upon and destroyed. At such moments, if he happens to be off by a fraction of an inch, the 3B coach's life is at risk. Yet, we saw only two weeks' worth of at-bats like that from Hidalgo in 2002, and the specific solution to his problems as a hitter may involve more than just re-kindling his enthusiasm for the game. To state a complex matter plainly, Hidalgo needs to control the strike zone. Of all the Astros' noteworthy hitters--Berkman, Bagwell, Kent, Biggio--Hidalgo does the worst job of all of them in attacking the fastball in the hitting zone and either fouling off or going the other way with pitches he can't drive. The idea is to force the pitcher to come to the plate with a pitch he doesn't want to throw, in a location he'd rather not reach. It's not exactly a new idea, and it's not like Hidalgo hasn't dominated a strike zone before (see Total Baseball under "Hidalgo, Richard," 2000), but this year is, for all practical purposes, the beginning of Hidalgo's career. He must learn again those things he appeared to master three years ago, and the learning, painful though it may be, might not be such a bad thing after all. I hope and I wish that Hidalgo and the coaches would use the time of March to reassess every part of Hidalgo's hitting game: his stance, his pitch selection, his bat speed, and his follow-through, with the goal of getting him back up to the level of performance he has every right to expect of himself. Truthfully, Hidalgo has a lot of work to do to get back to that higher level, and I can't say that I know he will do it because I know no such thing. I rather believe that Hidalgo will find it hard even to get back where he was two years ago, because I doubt that he or his coaches really sense the need for a reassessment of his approach as a hitter. The need is there. Projection: (.255/22/65).

Center Field - Craig Biggio (.253/15/58)
There were two articles published recently about Craig Biggio that I hope you had a chance to read. One was a CBS Sportsline.com article Feb. 2 on how intense the negotiations were between Biggio, whose pride was more damaged than we thought in the move to CF, and Drayton McLane and the front office. The other was an insightful piece in the Houston Chronicle by Jose De Jesus Ortiz, taking us through the daily workout routine that Biggio has established to prepare himself for that very move. Although I've said these things before, they are worth repeating briefly here: Biggio can play CF. He has enough speed to get to the balls that any CF can get to in the home park. The change may benefit his career rather than hurt it. His Hall Of Fame chances may increase if he succeeds at a third position, and they won't be hurt if he fails. The question we ought to be asking, rather than worrying about whether Biggio can catch a long drive to center (which is, after all, just an infield fly on steroids) is, will Biggio have a significantly better year at the plate in 2003 than he did last year? The answer, I think, is "No," but "no" sometimes has to be qualified as much as a "yes" or a "maybe". Biggio has had a declining OBA four out of the last five seasons. That's not good (his high mark was .415, in 1997), but it may not be as significant a stat as Rob Neyer, for one, makes it out to be. In the years following 1997, Biggio's OBA was .403, .386, .388, .382, and .330. All of the averages, except last year's, have been consistent and consistently high, which makes me think that last year's startlingly-low figure was more of a fluke than a warning. The batting average was down, too, but the loss was of mere points, not of power or run production. Biggio is clearly in the last stage of his career, but he is not ready for the bench just yet. Given his solid fifteen-year numbers and his track record at bouncing back from injury and other down years (which coincided in 2000), it would be my judgement that another, albeit modest, comeback by Biggio is quite possible. The OBA will come up--just trust me on this. When Biggio wants to draw a walk, he can draw a walk. Whether his BA will improve is a more challenging question because of Biggio's perennial weakness for the slider, but an increase of five points or so would not surprise me at all. What I think we will continue to see, however, is an overall "sacrifice," if you will, of BA and OBA for additional power. Biggio can still hit the fastball. If his strikeout totals increase this year and his walk total remains the same as it was last year (50) or decreases, then I will admit that Biggio is done. But until then, he remains immensely useful, both as an OF and an unofficial reserve in the infield. Biggio may find himself in another new spot during the year, too. If he slumps batting second or first, Jimy Willams might very well drop him to sixth in the order to give him a break from the task of kickstarting the lineup. Biggio has done a multitude of things so well for so long--drawing a walk, rapping a single up the middle, lacing a double down the LF line, getting hit by a pitch, ripping the ball out of the park--that we have forgotten how multi-faceted the job of a 2 hitter or a 1 hitter can be when we see all that can be done in the spot. There are very few top of the order men in baseball who can do all of the things that Biggio can do, but perhaps it is time to realize that Biggio need no longer be required to do all of them in order to contribute to the Astros. Houston still needs him, and it will gratefully take whatever he can give. If Biggio does have a slightly better year in 2003 than he did last season--and I think he will--the reason will probably be the fresher legs the ballclub allowed him to keep by moving him to CF. Projection: (.260/13/62).

Left Field - Lance Berkman (.292/42/128)
Those who think that Berkman's career track has followed Hidalgo's--a slow rise to a peak, followed by a decline and then a crash--can relax. Berkman's career has not been nor will be anything like Hidalgo's. After a brief 34-game look in 1999, Berkman's numbers have been solid ever since. Both the average and the power have been there from day one, in contrast to Hidalgo, whose numbers have fluctuated in the way I have described over his career, which is longer than Berkman's by two seasons. Only injury can stop Berkman from becoming one of the finest hitters in Houston history. Most of us would still like to see him become more of a threat from the right side of the plate, his natural side, but he's already a threat that way, too, just with less power. One of the benefits of Biggio's move to CF is the resulting move of Berkman back to LF, a switch that may save as much wear on Berkman as it does on Biggio. I don't think the switch guarantees, however, that we will see another 120 RBI season from Berkman, although we might. More probably, we're looking at a guy who'll drive in 100-110 runs every year. If that's what he does this season for Houston, that'll be good enough. On the other hand, I don't believe Berkman's reached his peak yet. Exactly what his peak might be is hard to say, but considering the park he plays his home games in, his home run power and his batting eye, I'd say a Triple Crown season in 2003 or 2004 might constitute a fair peak. Berkman does have the ability to be a Triple Crown winner. He also has the ability to hit 50 homers a year or to hit .300 every year. My sense, though, is that he will sacrifice those ego-driven goals to be the relentless run-producer the Astros need. Projection: (.295/36/104).

In summary, the Astros' starting lineup--SS Lugo; CF Biggio; LF Berkman; 1B Bagwell; 2B Kent; RF Hidalgo 3B Blum; C Ausmus--is potentially a terrifying group for a pitcher to face. They have little speed on offense, but if they mash the ball like they did in 2000 or in 1998, they won't need much speed, although exchanging Kent for Ward in the # 5 spot may keep the Astros from grounding into as many double plays as they hit into last year. Defensively, however, they've probably gained a step or two at 2B and in LF, and that's going to make them better defensively overall, even if Biggio proves to be only an average CF. The interior defense is better than people think. The Astros led the league in fielding percentage in 2002--a devalued statistic these days, perhaps, but not a meaningless one.

The Starting Rotation

Houston's starting five on the mound this season will call to mind both the excellence of contemporary baseball and pleasant memories of pitching staffs from a bygone era. As a duo, Wade Miller and Roy Oswalt have only Randy Johnson and Curt Shilling of Arizona and Barry Zito and Mark Mulder of Oakland as their peers, and the day is coming--perhaps it will arrive this season--when Oswalt and Miller will begin a long run as the pre-eminent pitching tandem in the National League. Although they do not form a left-right combination the way that Warren Spahn and Johnny Sain did for the Boston Braves or Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale did for the Dodgers, the reponsibility that both of Houston's aces carry is exactly the same and nearly as heavy a burden. The game is different now than it was in 1947 through 1951 when Spahn and Sain pitched together or in the 1960s when Koufax and Drysdale shut out every team between here and Mars. All four of these men worked in an era of four-man rotations and logged more starts and usually more innings than most pitchers will today. As any fan of the old Braves will tell you, it really was the case that people could only think of "Spahn and Sain, and pray for rain."

It's been a long time since any Houston baseball fans have had to concern themselves with rain's potential to nudge along a thin pitching staff in April and May and through the occasional showers of June, but Miller and Oswalt nonetheless have the challenge of anchoring a rotation about which there are many questions to be answered in Spring Training. It's been said several times already this off-season, but it cannot be said too often or too strongly: if the leading candidates for spots 3, 4, and 5 in the rotation are healthy and remain so for an extended period, the Houston Astros have a better than 50-50 chance to be a superior team. If they are not healthy, however, then the precious depth that Gerry Hunsicker quietly went about stockpiling over the winter will used to the maximum. Every pitcher has periodic aches and pains during the season but, that said, it is worth remarking that nearly every one of Houston's pitchers--including most of the leading candidates to be pitchers on this year's team has had serious arm trouble in the past. I'm looking at a fair list of Houston pitchers as I write, and the only men who haven't had any arm trouble or other physical problems that I'm aware of are Tim Redding and Kirk Saarloos. With all due respect, then, to the cheerful optimism of a Shane Reynolds or a Brian Moehler in regard to how good they feel about lasting the full year, the odds are that the last three spots of the Astros' starting five will undergo some degree of change as the season unfolds. That probability makes forecasting the productivity of a rotation a hard business but, with the understanding that a 162-game schedule takes place over a long time, there are still some observations about the Astros' starters that can carry appropriate weight, pitchers who can be pencilled in and discussed as likely contributors to the team this season.

Wade Miller (15-4, 3.28)
Miller is no Rodney Dangerfield, but it seems to me that he still doesn't quite get the respect he deserves at the top of Houston's rotation. The season he had in 2002 after recovering from the pinched nerve in his neck was nothing short of phenomenal. His twelve-game winning streak was one of the all-time great sustained pitching performances in Astros' history. That fastball and that slider he throws are completely impressive, intimidating pitches, heavy stuff that most batters just can't handle, especially if they wear a Brewers uniform. As long as his neck feels fine--or as long as there's treatment for it if it doesn't feel fine--Miller will put up outstanding numbers again. Odds are that the spread between his wins and losses won't be as great this year as it was last, but he is now in the fullness of his peak years with the Astros, and I honestly expect that with good health and a team hitting and fielding for him as well as they are capable, he will be a twenty-game winner this year. Projection: (20-12,3.20).

Roy Oswalt (19-9, 3.01)
Almost unnoticed at the end of Oswalt's wonderful 19-9 season, a season that included a nine-game winning streak, was the fact that he lost three out of his last four starts and looked bad doing it. I mention this to suggest that, as valuable as he is, Oswalt needs to be handled carefully during the year. Weight training has bulked up his once pencil-thin legs, enabling him to drive off the mound more consistently in each of his games, but he is still susceptible to pulled hamstrings and fatigue. Then again, so is Pedro Martinez, among his other ailments. But that cautionary note aside, I'm just going to go ahead and say it: I think that this year, with this team, Oswalt will take his place as the second-finest pitcher in the National League. Randy Johnson is still the best there is and will remain so until his body no longer enables him to throw, but Oswalt will pass Curt Shilling by as the # 2 guy. I tend to wax rhapsodic about Oswalt, but I can't help it. The man's stuff, and his command of it, is just extraordinary. "Command" is the right word for it, by the way; a good pitcher has control of his stuff, but Oswalt lashes that fastball and slider of his over the outside corner, or snaps that curveball off at a hitter's belt, like Indiana Jones cracking his bullwhip at the German army. When he pitches, there is absolutely no doubt who is in charge or what the outcome of the game will be. Oswalt can go through periods of wildness or hittabilty, but we tend to remember them precisely because they are very rare and very brief. It would help him quite a bit this year, particularly psychologically, if Shane Reynolds could step up and have one last Shane Reynolds-like season to take some of the pressure off that Oswalt feels from being counted on so heavily. I have a feeling, however, that this year, though Oswalt would welcome such support, he won't need it. Projection: (23-6/3.16).

Shane Reynolds (3-6, 4.86)
Reynolds went down so quickly last season that I don't honestly have a clear recollection of it happening, even after consulting my notes. His chronic back trouble has been such a concern over the past couple of seasons that it has misled some fans--including this one--into thinking that Reynolds is injury-prone when, in fact, he is not. Chronic conditions are, by definition, ongoing medical issues, but if Reynolds is indeed healthy and can handle a regular load of work again, he could be a major boost to a rotation that urgently needs to find a top-quality third starter. At this stage of his career, that is exactly the role Reynolds should be filling, rather than the role of a # 1 or a # 2 man. If his back holds up, he'll get a lot of starts and rack up a lot of decisions, but his innings pitched last season divided by the number of games started yields a figure we ought to pay attention to: Reynolds is trending toward becoming a five and six-inning pitcher rather than the seven and eight inning pitcher that he once was and that Miller and Oswalt now are. The bullpen will have to pick up for him quite a bit. Yet part of that decline is traceable not just to injury but to simple, inevitable aging. Reynolds still has a lot to offer the Astros. His poise and knowledge of how to pitch were just as sorely missed last season as his curve and split-finger pitches were. Reynolds is around the plate a little too much for my taste, a lot like Dave Roberts used to be, but when he's pitching well and there's a game out there that the Astros have to win, I'll take my chances with Reynolds any day of the week. I'm also going to buy into the notion that he truly is ready to return to his old form this season, in part because I believe it, and in part because Houston needs him in order to win the NL Central. Projection: (14-14,4.15).

Brian Moehler
Moehler, like Astro newcomer Jared Fernandez, defeated Houston in a game with Cincinnati last season, prompting Gerry Hunsicker to place his name along with Fernandez's in this year's competition for the coveted Bob Knepper "Since-You-Can-Beat-'Em, Join-'Em" Award. All kidding aside, the acquisition of Moehler might turn out to be one of Hunsicker's best deals, if the ex-Tiger and Red is as healthy as he says he is. At the very least, the signing of Moehler makes more sense than taking a gamble on Kent Bottenfield did three years ago. Moehler has had double figures in wins in four of his seven big-league seasons, and those wins were achieved for Tiger teams that weren't nearly as good as Houston is. His curve and hard sinker should make pitching at home a less traumatic experience than it was for Bottenfield or Jose Lima, and he has Brad Ausmus to help him with the transition. Still, no one will know for sure how much Moehler can give the Astros until he actually begins pitching, and he has never pitched in a ballpark quite like the one in downtown Houston. But he is, when healthy, a reliable fourth starter, and I respect any pitcher who can labor with Detroit as effectively as Moehler did while facing all those power-laden, no-rest-for-the-weary lineups of the American League. We might fairly expect Moehler's arm to be a little stronger, a little more durable than it was in 2002, and thereby optimistically project that he'll return to ten wins a season and, with a better ballclub behind him, maybe do a touch better than that. Projection: (12-13, 4.06).

Peter Munro (5-5, 3.57)
Munro was an unsung hero of last season's 84-78 team. He had the best ERA of any starting pitcher on the Astros' staff not named Oswalt or Miller, and in doing a creditable job he perhaps put himself in the lead to claim the fifth spot this year in Spring Training. Munro doesn't have exceptional stuff, but he does have good control and a solid idea of what he wants to do out there. There's some question about whether he could hold up over the long rigors of an entire season, but that question is likely to be answered pretty quickly in ST, both by his performance on the mound and by management, which plans to sit down early with their pitchers and divide them into candidates for the bullpen or candidates for the starting rotation. Munro fits more comfortably in the latter group and, because of the location problems that cropped up for Tim Redding and Kirk Saarloos last season, rates a slight edge right now over the other contenders for the fifth spot. He may find, however, that keeping the fifth spot the whole season is just as tough as earning it. Projection: (3-6, 4.01).

Such is the fluid nature of the situation, however--what with injury problems, varying levels of talent and experience, and the needs of the ballclub--that I could very well be wrong about the impact of both Reynolds and Moehler on the team. It just might turn out that Moehler and Reynolds will collapse, so to speak, and that a younger man will step forward and develop, giving the Astros the output I've predicted for the veterans, while Reynolds and Moehler drop back to numbers like those that Munro and Saarloos posted last year.

Munro is by no means the only good candidate to crack the rotation. The man the Astros' front office probably hopes will mature into that last starter is Tim Redding. To say that management favors Redding over everyone else would be wrong; it's just that, if he ever does harness his fastball and formidable curve, he could change the equation in the rotation completely, making an impact beyond anyone else. His stuff is that good. You may have read his comments last week in his hometown newspaper about how excited he is to get the season underway. It is good that he feels that way, but he also knows that this is a big year for him. If he doesn't land a rotation spot, he may find his options narrowing. It is possible--but not likely--that if he misses out on a starter's job, Houston could put him in the bullpen, though there are more suitable alternatives than Redding for a set-up man. He could also be traded. If Redding wants to avoid both of these outcomes, he'll have to get focused and stay that way from day one of camp. Otherwise, he'll find himself in the company of life's other famous Redding, sittin' on the dock of the bay.

Kirk Saarloos deserves as full a shot as the Astros can possibly give him. He had a pretty good shot last season, too, and was sometimes brilliant, sometimes horrible in posting a 6-7 record. I see visions of Greg Maddux in this man. Whether he has the passion to study hitters like Maddux does, or the drive to throw pitches in practice over and over until the pitch goes here and not there the way Maddux does is not clear to me, but in regard to the characteristics of poise and having a very good idea of what he wants to do with each pitch, Saarloos is ahead of his competition. There was a report early last week from an Internet source--I forget whom--which suggested that Saarloos is an excellent candidate for a long relief man if he does not win a starting job. Unless that writer was getting his information from a highly placed official of the Astros, though, I have to question whether the suggestion is believable. Saarloos doesn't have burning stuff, like Redding does, that he can blow by a hitter even if he misses his location. It would be hard for him to come into a game and immediately find a groove. I have to believe that if he doesn't make the Opening Day roster as a starter, he'll be sent to New Orleans.

If the Astros are in fact looking for a swing man, Jesus Sanchez might be a better candidate than Saarloos. He's got pretty good stuff, and has experience coming out of the 'pen. He's also left-handed, which is a point in his favor no matter what role he fills. He has one principal drawback: as a starter, he's given up a lot of homers, but that tendency might be curtailed in a relief role. Reading between the lines of Gerry Hunsicker's press conference when he announced the Sanchez signing, I got the impression that this was a man Hunsicker really wanted, so I would rate the chances of him sticking around as fairly high.

Jeriome Robertson almost has to be listed as a dark horse candidate for the starting spot, though he may privately be up higher in the estimation of the club than anybody knows. Like Sanchez, he's a lefty with good stuff, who seems to have gotten his game together after a troublesome career in the high minors with nagging injuries. Since Robertson has so little big-league experience (9.2 innings with Houston last season), I regard him as a man who'll have to work even harder than the others to win a spot.

There's a final pair of pitchers who, until they prove otherwise, might be regarded as ST fodder: Jared Fernandez, a knuckleballer, and Anthony Telford, who pitched most recently for the Rangers. Both of these men are going to have to push it to win a starting spot, but even that may not be enough. They may have to hope that one or more of the other candidates goes down. Fernandez actually beat the Astros last season, so he can pitch, but whether he can sustain more than periodic excellence for a big-league team is a serious question. I'll say more about one other pitcher the Astros have, Chris Gissell, in a moment.

Whatever the outcome of the competition for the fifth spot in the rotation, you can bet one thing: Hunsicker will keep the phone numbers of every one of them handy, including the non-roster invitees (Sanchez, Fernandez, Telford, Linebrink, Munro). What that may mean is that when July 31st rolls around this year, Drayton McLane, who is watching his budget even more carefully after the signings of Jeff Kent and Craig Biggio, may not authorize a trade for pitching help. Instead, one of these guys may get a call back. As for how I think the survivors of the battle for the fifth rotation spot will fare with the Astros, you'll have to wait for Part Three of the Preview on Tuesday.

The Astros did not do as I hoped they'd do in the off-season and acquire a top-tier starting pitcher, but what they did do was obtain enough mid-level arms--Moehler, Sanchez, Fernandez, Telford--to push last year's inconsistent young starters, Saarloos and Redding, down one slot in the pitching order. The Astros were stung several times last season, especially late in the year, by pitching matchups that simply didn't favor them--Munro loses to Woody Williams of the Cardinals; Saarloos pitches well out west against Hideo Nomo of the Dodgers, but has to turn things over to the bullpen and the Astros fall; Jeriome Robertson is pressed into service in a make-up game at Arlington and falls victim to bad fielding and a better-than-it-should-have-been-allowed-to-be performance from Chan Ho Park of the Rangers. Those matchups figure to change this season, assuming that Reynolds and Moehler are healthy enough to do the lion's share of the work in turns # 3 and # 4. Unless Saarloos or Redding takes a giant step this Spring and develops to a degree I cannot anticipate (and either man could do so), it was my feeling late last season and is my feeling now that neither man alone is likely to emerge as a full-fledged, full-time fifth starter, but there's a reasonable chance that, collectively, Munro, Redding, Saarloos and possibly Jesus Sanchez, will give the Astros better work at the bottom of the rotation this year than the club got last year

The Bullpen

If Reynolds and Moehler remain in the rotation all or most of the season, the bullpen will get less work and fewer W-L decisions than in last year's busy 22-23 season. The number of appearances will decrease slightly for the middle relievers, but save opportunities should be abundant for the late-inning men.

Because the Astros have a number of players who can play several positions, there's a strong possibility Houston may carry twelve pitchers on its Opening Day roster. If so, that may temporarily help someone like Brandon Puffer, who did a fair job last season but who will likely find himself getting squeezed out as this year's camp opens up. As the season unfolds, I expect some contributions from a few of the men I've already mentioned, particularly Sanchez and Saarloos, and I've listed what I think those contributions will be here, under the bullpen. At the moment, both depth and quality appear to be issues for the relief corps, but the Astros do have some interesting though untested arms down there and three locks:

Billy Wagner (4-2, 2.52, 35 saves)
Doubtless the fan debate over Wagner should be (or should have been) traded will continue, but the argument is over whether Wagner's salary is too high given his relative contribution to the team, not over the talent that he brings to the mound whenever he's called upon. Rather than spending a lot of time wishing he were somewhere else, I'd encourage Astros fans to meditate for a while on what a joy it is to have as solid a duo as Wagner and Octavio Dotel in the bullpen. Hope springs eternal that Wagner will someday gain full command over his sometimes wayward slider or that he will add a wicked off-speed pitch to his two awesome out pitches, but he's pretty good as it is. If the Astros' offense improves as anticipated, Wagner should come in holding a two-run lead rather than one-run lead more often this year, and that should translate into a few more saves. Projection: (2-2, 2.12, 38 saves).

Octavio Dotel (6-4, 1.85, 6 saves)
Dotel makes me happy. You know why? It became clear during the 2000 season that Dotel was a pitcher more suited to the bullpen. After a little bit of grousing, Dotel accepted the new role in 2001 and 2002 and became the great set-up man it was apparent he could be. Dotel can also be a closer, but it is best not to wish anything bad on Wagner; Wagner's percentage of blown saves is lower than Dotel's over the last three seasons. That means Dotel is best right where he is, as a frequently-unhittable force in the seventh and eighth innings. You may also recall the words I wrote in appreciation of him for the recent All-Time Astros Team: when Dotel is on, his stuff is harder to hit than Wagner's. Projection: (3-1, 1.97, 4 saves).

Ricky Stone (3-3, 3.61)
Why is it that every time I think about Stone I think about Lucy Ricardo and want to call him Little Ricky Stone? The man's way better than the ratings-generated son of a famous TV bandleader. He's a sturdy, reliable middle-reliever who may be better this season for Houston if he doesn't have to work quite so often (78 games in 2002). He won't be in a position to gain many wins, losses, or saves, but the work he does in picking up for Reynolds, Moehler, and Munro will be invaluable. Projection: (2-2/3.3.30).

Brad Lidge (1-0, 6.23)
Lidge, I think, will be one of ST's most pleasant surprises. He'll make the club and spend the year healthy in the 'pen, being used mostly an inning at a time--frequently the seventh--pushing Dotel's appearances more often to the eighth inning. Lidge has great, blow-'em away stuff, and if he takes hold of the job even more greatly than I anticipate, the Astros' win total will be even higher than I have calculated. One intriguing possibility about the way a healthy Lidge could affect Jimy Williams's use of the staff: if the Astros' starting pitchers get in a really tight bind, Dotel could make a start or two if necessary and Lidge could take Dotel's set-up spot. I put this thought out mostly as an offering of ST fun and dreaming, but it does serve as an example of what I mean by greater flexibility from the bullpen this year. Projection: (1-2/2.45).

Jesus Sanchez
Whether Sanchez makes the starting rotation or not, I expect him to make the club. The temptation to include a left-hander on the staff--and the potential usefulness of adding such a pitcher--will be too great for management to ignore. Sanchez could be fine in long relief, 2-3 innings at a time, and he can be a spot starter if the Astros need him to be, although if everyone remains healthy, he won't be overloaded with work. Projection: (2-3, 4.24).

Scott Linebrink
Linebrink is a non-roster invitee this Spring who'll be battling Puffer for the last spot in the 'pen if the Astros carry twelve pitchers. The front office remains intrigued by Linebrink's sinking stuff, and if he has learned to command it better and can remain free of injury, he could be a stronger contributor than he has been in the past. Projection: (0-0, 4.17).

Other Men Who Will Be Certain Pitching Factors In 2003

Tim Redding (3-6, 5.40)
Redding has apparently worked hard this off-season with his old coaches refining his mechanics. He's also had more than one conversation with those coaches about his composure and approach to the game. If those talks and that work pay dividends, both Redding and the Astros will be better. But if Redding does not become the fifth starter, he need not despair. I believe there's an excellent chance that he'll be called upon fairly early in the season. The stats he'll put up if he remains much like the pitcher we've seen the past two seasons may not be all that impressive, but down in the fifth spot, or as a temporary starter in place of one of the other four, they'll be impressive enough. Projection: (6-8, 4.12).

Kirk Saarloos (6-7, 6.01)
If Saarloos doesn't win the last rotation spot, he'll be sent to New Orleans. He will spend some time with the big club this year, but exactly how much, if he's not in there every fifth day, remains to be seen. Management may have taken more notice of how hard Saarloos got whacked around last season in his bad games than it did the good work in his most impressive performances, but I do expect that, one way or another, Saarloos will contribute a share to the Astros' success. Projection: (3-2, 4.28).

Left Outside The Mix

If one of your favorites is on this list, my apologies, but look at it philosophically: every year on every club, there are guys who get left out. It happened to Ricky Stone two seasons ago, and it'll happen to somebody this year. The most prominent candidate to get left out, to me, as you may have already guessed, is Brandon Puffer, who really shouldered a load for Houston last season, but whose slider flattened out too often in the second half of the year. If Williams and Hooten find better men among this year's alternatives, I don't see Puffer making an impact. The best he can do, perhaps, is to switch places with Linebrink. Also to be cut at some point are Anthony Telford and Jared Fernandez, who was already cut loose by the pitching-thin Reds. Jeriome Robertson will be given a couple of starts in ST probably, but he will not make the club. To be honest, I don't know what his future with the club will be if he can't be a starting pitcher, and the Astros themselves may not know, either.

The Bench

I am worried about the Astros' bench this year. There's just not a lot of pop there, and there will be less if the Astros carry twelve pitchers. But the bench does have a virtue: it figures to be versatile.

Jose Vizcaino (.303-5-37)
In answer to a question that was asked after Part One was posted, I do expect that Vizcaino's playing time will decrease in 2003. Julio Lugo's injury was a freak thing and unlike the Bagwell scenario, wherein Bagwell dives into the ball at the plate, exposing his left hand, such an injury is not likely to happen again. Yet, Vizcaino should remain a useful man on the club, filling in at both SS and 2B and being a reliable singles hitter off the bench. Projection: (.263/2/25).

Gregg Zaun (.222/3/24)
Zaun was a big disappointment to me last season. I thought he'd be better in both aspects of the game. It remains to be seen this year whether he is truly as poor a hitter as he was last season and whether he can make any improvement defensively, which is what the Astros should be hoping. Projection: (.235/2/31).

Morgan Ensberg (.242/3/19)
There's an argument to be made, I suppose, that Ensberg would be better left in New Orleans as a candidate to be called up in the event of an emergency, but that argument carries less weight now than it did a year ago. Time marches on, and prospects have moved up in the Astros' chain. If all that Ensberg can lay claim to is a reserve spot, then that will have to do. And that may not be such a bad thing. Ensberg is one of the few men the Astros have on the bench who carries some power in his bat, and I expect the club to keep him around because of it. Otherwise, Jimy Williams faces the troublesome prospect of watching Vizcaino fill in at 3B, a position he just doesn't have the quickness for. Projection: (.255/6/31).

Jason Lane (.290/4/10)
One of the most interesting questions we can ask in ST is how much playing time will Lane get in 2003? As in the case of Ensberg, the same argument for sending Lane over to New Orleans can be made, but Houston will need his bat sooner or later. It might as well be sooner. Lane can hit for average and, given time (chronological time, not necessarily tons of playing time) he'll hit for more power than he showed last season. He can play an adequate RF or CF, and he appears to have the happy, Bill Spiers-like trait of seeming to get more out of his ability than we think possible. If the Astros do send him back down, they'll be delaying an opportunity for a young man who can contribute right now. I think Lane could become what Euribel Durazo was to the Diamondbacks' bench the past two seasons. But ya gotta let him play and find his niche. Projection: (.296/7/35).

Brian Hunter (.269/3/20)
Here's where matters get dicey on the Astros' bench. Eventually, I believe, the Astros are going to have to choose between Hunter and Orlando Merced. Both carry heavy contracts relative to their contributions (Hunter $1.2 million, Merced $1.7) and one of them will be traded or let go at some point, although it's not clear which one it will be. Assuming for the purposes of this preview that the Astros carry twelve pitchers rather than eleven, Hunter would be my choice over Merced because of his speed. He's a decent singles hitter, a good defensive OF and the Astros' best pinch-running option to boot.
Projection: (.274/2/25).

Bench Splinters
Two other possible bench players are Orlando Merced and Victor Hall. If the Astros keep only eleven pitchers, then they'll have the luxury of retaining Merced's services. Merced can still hit (.287/6/30) but both injury and age slowed him down last season, and he's not as valuable in the field as he once was. Barring a payroll trade or other move in ST, look for the Astros to eat his salary at some point during the year and let him go. They could do so particularly if Hall, who was obtained in the Rule V draft, gets enough seasoning in the minor leagues by the middle of the year. Hall is fast and can hit, although right now he's also a strikeout machine. His game is a little rough around the edges, but if you're lookin' for a guy who could come in and give the Astros a boost before the All-Star Break, Hall could be it. SS Adam Everett is still in the hunt for a bench spot, but he probably won't hit enough in the Spring to merit one. The same goes for Alan Zinter, whose well-earned fifteen minutes of fame last season have now been used up.

Dark Horses In Camp And Guys We Could See In September
C John Buck, P Greg Miller, P Chris Gissell, P Santiago Ramirez, P Jimmy Barrett, P Miguel Saladin, LF Henri Stanley, CF Collin Porter--Miller, obtained a few years ago in the Carl Everett trade with the Red Sox, could make the opening roster if Linebrink or Puffer or Sanchez is just are not impressive enough. He has good stuff but has struggled with both minor injuries and command of that stuff in the minors. Gissell was 8-12 with Iowa last season in the PCL and could push his way past the Fernandezes and Telfords of the world with a good spring. If Saarloos or Redding should get hurt, robbing the Astros of that depth, Gissell could step in. Buck, Barrett, Ramirez, Saladin, Stanley, and Porter are all candidates to be called up in September based on their performances in the minors this year and on the Astros' needs eight months from now. Buck has all the tools to be a major league catcher; Ramirez, Saladin, and Barrett have live arms and good control; Stanley and Porter are overachievers who have forced their way into future consideration by the organization. It's unlikely that any of them will be summoned before September, but Buck will be the Astros' backup catcher, if not the starter, in 2004, and Ramirez and Saladin will press for spots on the staff, then, too.