and the
Hall of Fame
With Craig Biggio picking up his 2000th career hit in Montreal and logging another good sesaon in 2001, the time seems right to once again evaluate his case for Hall of Fame induction. As an Astros fan, it is easy for me to proclaim that Biggio is deserving of baseball's ultimate honor, but would fans in other cities agree? And, more importantly, would the sportswriters in other baseball cities agree? After all, they will be the ones casting the deciding votes five years after Biggio eventually hangs up his spikes.
To be objective about this, we must not only evaluate what Biggio has accomplished, but what the existing Hall-of-Fame second basemen have accomplished. In this era of increased offense, we must also compare Biggio to his contemporaries, since he will be competing with them for the votes of the sportswriters.
Let's look at Biggio's accomplishments compared to the 16 current Hall of Fame second basemen, along with Ryne Sandberg, whose induction is all-but certain:
Hall of Fame second basemen Player Era Runs Hits HR RBI SB avg obp slg TPR Nap Lajoie 00s 1504 3242 83 1599 380 .338 .380 .467 95.5 Rogers Hornsby 20s 1579 2930 301 1584 135 .358 .434 .577 82.7 Eddie Collins 10s 1821 3315 47 1300 744 .333 .424 .429 73.3 Joe Morgan 70s 1650 2517 268 1133 689 .271 .392 .427 54.8 Charlie Gehringer 30s 1774 2839 184 1427 181 .320 .404 .480 45.0 Bid McPhee 1890s 1684 2313 53 1071 568 .277 .355 .373 41.0 VC Bobby Doerr 40s 1094 2042 223 1247 54 .288 .362 .461 40.5 VC Frankie Frisch 20s 1532 2880 105 1244 419 .316 .369 .432 38.6 Craig Biggio 90s 1305 2149 180 811 365 .291 .381 .436 37.6* Ryne Sandberg 80s 1318 2386 282 1061 344 .285 .344 .452 36.6 Bill Mazeroski 60s 769 2016 138 853 27 .260 .299 .367 36.3 VC Rod Carew 70s 1424 3053 92 1015 353 .328 .395 .429 34.2 Jackie Robinson 50s 947 1518 137 734 197 .311 .409 .474 32.0 Billy Herman 30s 1163 2345 47 839 67 .304 .367 .407 31.8 VC Tony Lazzeri 30s 986 1840 178 1191 148 .292 .380 .467 17.5 VC Johnny Evers 10s 919 1659 12 538 324 .270 .356 .334 15.1 VC Nellie Fox 50s 1279 2663 35 790 76 .288 .348 .363 12.6 VC Red Schoendienst 50s 1223 2449 84 773 89 .289 .337 .387 11.4 VC
* - TPR gained for 2001 season has been estimated at 2.0
Each player is ranked by Total Baseball's "Total Player Rating" (TPR), which is an attempt to measure overall offensive and defensive performance, adjusting for ballparks and era. You can see that defense is certainly considered by looking at the ranking for Bill Mazeroski, a weak hitter with a great glove. The 'era' column is the decade in which each player had his peak seasons. Veteran's Committee selections are listed with a 'VC' at the end of their line.
Anytime you look at a list like this, you can see how the Veteran's Committee is a double-edged sword. For every Bobby Doerr or Bill Mazeroski they induct, players like Nellie Fox and Red Schoendienst slip in. Still, Biggio has a TPR over 30, which is a good indication of Hall of Fame worthiness. Although his TPR for 2001 is not available, Biggio most likely passed Mazeroski and Sandberg on the all-time list. Out of the 18 second basemen in the list, here is how Biggio ranks in each stat:
Craig Biggio Era Runs Hits HR RBI SB avg obp slg TPR through 2000 90s 12th 15th 7th 16th 6th 11th 7th 8th 11th through 2001 90s 10th 13th 6th 14th 6th 11th 7th 8th 9th*
Even with his 2001 performance, this is still not a particularly impressive ranking against the 16 HOF second-basemen, which means Biggio would have trouble getting votes if he retired today. However, with just one more solid season like 2001 (20 HR, 70 RBI, .291 avg), Biggio's rankings against the 15 Hall of Famers would look like this:
Craig Biggio Era Runs Hits HR RBI SB avg obp slg TPR one more season 90s 8th 12th 5th 12th 6th 11th 7th 7th 8th*
Still, at this point Biggio ranks in the top half of Hall of Fame second basemen in most categories. I think there will be little doubt of his qualifications if he produces another good season like 2001.
When Biggio is eligible for Hall of Fame consideration, his most severe competition will come from his contemporaries. This group includes second basemen retiring in the same general time as Biggio, along with good second basemen that had been previously snubbed. Once again, the assumption is made that Ryne Sandberg will easily be in the Hall of Fame by the time this occurs.
Modern-era second basemen Player Era Runs Hits HR RBI SB avg obp slg TPR Bobby Grich 70s 1033 1833 224 864 104 .266 .371 .424 45.8 Craig Biggio 90s 1305 2149 180 811 365 .291 .381 .436 35.6+ age 36 Roberto Alomar 90s 1341 2389 190 1018 446 .306 .377 .455 33.8+ age 34 Lou Whitaker 80s 1386 2369 244 1084 143 .276 .363 .426 26.3 Jeff Kent 90s 764 1409 216 899 68 .285 .350 .495 17.6+ age 34
As you can see, Biggio compares very well in this group. I would like to think that the Hall of Fame snub of Bobby Grich will be addressed before Biggio retires, but the writers will probably still be hung up on his .266 average. Never mind that he was a perennial Gold Glover with power, which explains his very high TPR.
The real competition for Biggio will come from Roberto Alomar. Alomar is two years younger and has superior career statistics across the board. The closeness in their TPR comes from adjusting for the stifling effects on Biggio's offense caused by playing so many years in the Astrodome. Since Alomar is still playing well and has caught up with Biggio in career value, there is little question that he is the better second baseman of the two. In fact, Alomar may have passed Biggio in TPR after the 2001 season.
Fortunately, there is room in the Hall for two second basemen from the same decade, provided that they are both worthy. Biggio's career looks like it will pass muster for the Hall, so the final question becomes: "Will another active second baseman pass up Biggio before he retires?"
A few years ago, Chuck Knoblauch would have been the most likely answer for this question. However, his offensive and defensive skills have declined so rapidly that he is no longer a realistic possibility for the Hall. The late blooming of Jeff Kent, however, has raised some eyebrows. After all, he did win the MVP in 2000, something which neither Biggio nor Alomar has accomplished. But his career stats are very low because of his late career start, and getting inducted into the Hall of Fame is all about career stats. Kent's best chance for reaching the Hall would require several more years similar to his 2000 campaign, and that seems very unlikely. Here is a comparison of the 2001 seasons for Biggio, Alomar and Kent.
2001 stats Player Runs Hits HR RBI SB avg obp slg TPR Craig Biggio 118 180 20 70 7 .291 .382 .455 Roberto Alomar 113 193 20 100 30 .336 .415 .541 Jeff Kent 84 181 22 106 7 .298 .369 .507In his MVP season in 2000, Kent collected 33 homers and 125 RBI while posting a .334 avg. He had a fine 2001 season, but it was still a dropoff. In other words, he made up almost no ground on Biggio in 2001 despite being two years younger. At this point, Kent would have to be considered a long shot to catch Biggio in career value. Alomar, on the other hand, is the same age as Kent but clearly had the best season of the three.
One final consideration has to be given to Biggio's case for the Hall of Fame. Sportswriters love "intangibles", because this gives them enough vagueness to make a case for their favorite players despite having tangible evidence.
Does Biggio have enough good intangibles? I think he does. For one thing, writers love "gamers": those mythical players that go out and play every day despite broken arms, snakebites, and whatever other ailments can bench a merely human player. Biggio had a 494 consecutive-game playing streak, and I think that will help make his case as a "gamer". Coming back successfully from his injury-shortened 2000 season also enhances this part of his reputation.
Biggio also has some impressive-sounding statistical intangibles. In 1997, Biggio became the first player in history to play a 162-game schedule without grounding into a double play. In 1998, he was the first player since Tris Speaker to collect 50 doubles and 50 stolen bases in a single season. It doesn't hurt that Speaker is considered one of the greatest players in the history of the game.
One final intangible that could work in Biggio's favor is his positional switch from catcher to second base. Much can be made about how Biggio was an All-Star catcher and then made the unheard-of transition to second base with such success that he not only become an All-Star at the new position, but he even became a Gold Glove winner. This is the kind of "intangible" story that writers love, and we can expect to relive this portion of Biggio's career over and over again when he becomes eligible for the Hall.
Because of pressure from Roberto Alomar, Biggio is not currently a lock for the Hall. Alomar will likely maintain his statistical edge and keep the perception of Biggio as the "2nd-best" second basemen of his era. However, sportswriters love round numbers and Biggio is in range of a lot of nice, round career numbers. Here are a few attainable career milestones:
2500 hits, needs 351, expected by late 2003 or early 2004
500 doubles, needs 63, expected by late 2003
200 homers, needs 20, expected by late 2002 or early 2003
1500 runs, needs 195, expected by late 2003
1000 RBI, needs 189, expected by 2004
Biggio will be 37 in the 2003 season, so his ability to reach all of these goals is still uncertain. However, returning from injury in 2001 to stay on track is a big step towards reaching these goals. If Biggio reaches any two of those goals, he will be a likely pick for the HOF. If he reaches them all, he will be a first-round, no-brainer lock.