added 6/2/2003 by Ray Kerby
With the passing of May, the Astros have just completed around one-third of the season. They weathered the loss of Julio Lugo, the disabling of Roy Oswalt, and plenty of turmoil in the starting rotation, but still managed to rack up an impressive 18-11 record for the month. Their first game of the month was a breakout game for Lance Berkman, but their final game was a heartbreaking, 16-inning loss to the Cubs in Chicago. With a 29-27 record, the Astros are keeping pace in a mediocre division just two games behind the Cubs.
What changed from April? For starters, the hitting improved tremendously. Lance Berkman returned to his old form and made everyone forget his four-RBI performance in April. Jeff Kent turned it up a notch and Craig Biggio did his best Prince imitation by playing like it was 1999. Morgan Ensberg was torrid, making a case for ending the platoon with Geoff Blum at third base. Richard Hidalgo improved slightly on his fine April performance, but went on the Disabled List with a viral infection. Adam Everett replaced Julio Lugo in the lineup and exceeded low expectations by hitting a respectable .263. On the downside, Jeff Bagwell struggled somewhat and Brad Ausmus started hitting like a pitcher.
If not for the starting pitching, the Astros might have won 25 games in May. Roy Oswalt pitched well but spent two weeks on the Disabled List after an awkward slide into second base. Wade Miller was up and down, but definitely ended the month on an "up" note. The historically inconsistent Tim Redding continued his fine season with a repeat of his good April. Jeriome Robertson was demoted in favor of Kirk Saarloos, who pitched poorly before being replaced by Robertson, who started pitching well. Confused, yet? In an emergency start, Scott Linebrink won his first major-league game and was subsequently released. Pete Munro stepped in for two starts, was pounded, and sent back to the bullpen. Over the month, you could have counted the number of good starts on one hand but, at the same time, the rotation seemed to gel at the end of the month. June could be a big month for Houston.
The bullpen continued to be amazing. Billy Wagner, Octavio Dotel, Brad Lidge and Ricky Stone all continued to pitch like All-Stars, but the results were mixed after that. Of course, if you have four outstanding pitchers in the bullpen then anything else is like icing on the cake. Nate Bland made his major league debut and looked good enough for the role of the lefty specialist. Pete Munro struggled and hung onto his job, but Brandon Puffer was not so lucky and was demoted to New Orleans.
On the bench, Jose Vizcaino started hitting well after a poor April. Hidalgo's illness created more playing time for Brian Hunter and Orlando Merced, but neither one played well. Outfielder Colin Porter subsequently earned a callup from New Orleans but should only get a few more at-bats before Hidalgo returns from the Disabled List. Gregg Zaun stole a little more playing time from the struggling Ausmus, but did not play well enough to displace the Gold Glover. All I remember about Tripp Cromer is that he hit a run-scoring triple and was released a few days later. David Matranga was not so lucky; he was on the roster for just a day before being replaced by Adam Everett, never making it to the lineup card.
Key Player Recaps
Brad Ausmus, C
Avg OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS April: .247 .303 .383 81 7 20 3 1 2 12 7 8 1 1 May: .139 .213 .167 72 5 10 2 0 0 3 6 11 1 0
Brad suffered through a horrible month at the plate, the kind of month that makes you wonder how long he can hold onto the starting job behind the plate. Last month, I tried to give an idea of the defensive abilities of Ausmus by looking at the percentage of baserunners he throws out when attempting to steal. This stat is used a lot for rating catcher defense, but it is not the only part of catching that Brad excels at. Here is a listing of Astros catchers by how many passed balls they allow per 1000 plate appearances with runners on base:
Catcher PA:ROB PB /KPA Brad Ausmus 7907 12 1.52 Tony Eusebio 7702 27 3.51 Scott Servais 4087 16 3.92 Eddie Taubensee 3068 13 4.24 Craig Biggio 6727 29 4.31 Alan Ashby 13082 76 5.81 Milt May 3620 26 7.18 Joe Ferguson 2829 21 7.42 Mark Bailey 4382 35 7.99 Ed Herrmann 2145 18 8.39 Cliff Johnson 2314 21 9.08 Luis Pujols 3964 56 14.13
What this says is that Brad Ausmus, over his career in Houston, has allowed just 1.52 passed balls per 1000 plate appearances with runners on base. But pity Alan Ashby, Mark Baily and Luis Pujols; they had to spend plenty of time trying to corral Joe Niekro's knuckleball. In fact, 43 of Ashby's 76 passed balls came with Niekro on the mound. Removing knucklers from the mix, the list looks like this:
Catcher PA:ROB PB /KPA Brad Ausmus 7907 12 1.52 Alan Ashby 11536 33 2.86 Tony Eusebio 7702 27 3.51 Scott Servais 4087 16 3.92 Eddie Taubensee 3068 13 4.24 Craig Biggio 6727 29 4.31 Mark Bailey 4159 20 4.81 Ed Herrmann 1920 11 5.73 Luis Pujols 2907 17 5.85 Milt May 3527 21 5.95 Joe Ferguson 2504 16 6.39 Cliff Johnson 2156 17 7.89
And finally, here is a Top 10 listing of the current major-league catchers (min. 5000 PA, excluding knuckleballers Tim Wakefield and Steve Sparks):
Catcher PA:ROB PB /KPA Brad Ausmus 8432 11 1.30 Ivan Rodriguez 7613 10 1.31 Dan Wilson 6803 13 1.91 Mike Matheny 6191 14 2.26 Jason Varitek 6030 15 2.49 Ramon Hernandez 6886 18 2.61 Brent Mayne 6408 17 2.65 Charles Johnson 7801 21 2.69 Mike Lieberthal 6892 19 2.76 John Flaherty 6847 19 2.78
The next time you need to start bragging about Brad Ausmus's Gold Glove, you can use this for additional ammunition.
Jeff Bagwell, 1B
Avg OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS April: .314 .390 .648 105 15 33 5 0 10 19 11 11 1 1 May: .259 .331 .313 112 18 29 3 0 1 6 11 27 1 0
Pass.
OK, maybe that Bill James joke is getting old. Jeff Bagwell went through a big slump in May, much like what Lance Berkman endured in April. When a hitter has a proven track record like Bagwell, you don't get worried about months like this. However, this is one of the worst full months that Bagwell has endured in his career. His worst was last June, when Bagwell batted .200 with a .591 OPS. Despite that month, he still finished with a fine season. From an OPS standpoint, here is a list of Bagwell's worst months and season-ending OPS:
Year Worst Month: OPS Season:OPS 1991 April: .730 season: .824 1992 May: .680 season: .812 1993 June: .657 season: .904 1994 May: .985 season: 1.201 1995 May: .631 season: .895 1996 July: .748 season: 1.021 1997 July: .850 season: 1.017 1998 May: .825 season: .981 1999 August:.885 season: 1.045 2000 June: .787 season: 1.039 2001 June: .857 season: .965 2002 June: .591 season: .919 2003 May: .644 season: ???
Lists like this are difficult to interpret. June has been Bagwell's worst month for the past three seasons, but it is hard to imagine why there is any particular reason for that. If that trend holds true this year, then Bagwell is in for a long season. Another mind-blowing observation from this list is that Bagwell's worst month in 1994 was better than most of his seasons.
Jeff Kent, 2B
Avg OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS April: .300 .349 .520 100 13 30 10 0 4 16 8 15 0 1 May: .365 .442 .615 96 21 35 12 0 4 23 13 20 3 0
The two greatest players in the history of the franchise have to be Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio. Bagwell is clearly the better hitter, but Biggio has always hit well while playing far more difficult positions. Now imagine a fantasy scenario: if we could somehow magically combine these two franchise greats, we'd have a second baseman that hits like a first baseman. In other words, we'd have Jeff Kent.
After a slower than expected start in April, Kent has really kicked in the afterburners over the past month. After two full months of play, Kent is sitting on a .399 on-base pct and a .575 slugging pct; that's an OPS of .974. You can count on one hand the number of second baseman in franchise history that have finished a season with a .974 OPS, even if you don't have any hands. In other words, it's never been done. Here are the top offensive seasons for Houston second baseman, ranked by OPS:
Year Name HR RBI AVG OPS 1997 Craig Biggio 22 81 .309 .916 1998 Craig Biggio 20 88 .325 .906 1994 Craig Biggio 6 56 .318 .894
Actually, Biggio sits in the top 7 all-time slots, so you get the idea. Kent is also on a pace for 24 homers and 117 RBI, which would both be franchise records for second basemen. With Bagwell struggling in May, it was a real boon for Kent to pick him up at the plate.
Geoff Blum, 3B
Avg OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS April: .259 .323 .341 85 7 22 4 0 1 5 8 9 0 0 May: .296 .307 .535 71 11 21 5 0 4 15 2 10 0 0
Geoff Blum continues to be the left-handed half of the team's platoon at third base and it's a good thing, too. Blum is just 1-for-14 this season against lefties but is batting .296 against right-handed pitchers. Nevertheless, it may not be enough to keep a Morgan Ensberg from stealing more starts from Blum. You can see a drop in at-bats for Blum in May, and Ensberg's hot bat is the direct cause for this.
Blum's big day came not in May, but on April 18th against the Brewers. In an extra-inning loss, Blum picked up 5 hits in 7 at-bats to become the 8th Astro to achieve that feat in this decade. This is easily the most 5-hit games by the Astros in any decade. You might automatically assume, like me, that the new, hitter-friendly home park has a lot with it but you would be wrong. Only 2 of the 8 five-hit games have taken place at Enron Maid Astros Field Minute Park, and the feat has been accomplished by 7 different Astros:
Date Player 04/18/2003 Geoff Blum, at Mil 08/17/2002 Jose Vizcaino, at Cin 05/06/2001 Julio Lugo, at Mon 04/03/2001 Craig Biggio, at Hou (opening day!) 09/08/2000 Julio Lugo, at Chi 05/16/2000 Ken Caminiti, at Mil 05/12/2000 Roger Cedeno, at Hou 05/07/2000 Mitch Meluskey, at LA
The Astros had only 3 five-hit games in the Nineties, 5 in the Eighties, 6 in the Seventies, and 6 in the Sixties. The team record remains a six-hit game by Joe Morgan on July 8, 1965 against the Milwaukee Braves.
Morgan Ensberg, 3B
Avg OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS April: .250 .306 .438 32 3 8 0 0 2 7 3 4 0 0 May: .300 .426 .560 50 13 15 2 1 3 10 8 8 1 0
ummm, wow. Morgan Ensberg has come out of nowhere to live up to the potential he displayed in Round Rock (AA) in 2000 and New Orleans (AAA) in 2001 when he hit .300 with power (20+ homers). At 27, Ensberg is at the age when hitters begin to peak and it's hard not to get excited by what he's doing right now. And to make things better, he is fielding the position better than Astros fans have seen in a while. Ensberg is hitting equally well against left-handed and right-handed pitchers, making it hard to justify the 3B platoon if he maintains his torrid hitting for another month. Even though Ensberg has displayed this potential in the minors, we have to remember that this is just one month. Still, Ensberg's May was almost too good to be a fluke. It certainly ranks among the Top 10 in hitting performances for Astros third basemen since the horrendous trade that sent Ken Caminit to San Diego in 1995. I compiled a list of those performances, but I am sparing you another list full of numbers.
Adam Everett, SS
Avg OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS 2002: .193 .297 .227 88 11 17 3 0 0 4 12 19 3 0 May: .263 .314 .388 80 12 21 5 1 1 7 5 14 5 0
Adam Everett has flirted with a .300 batting average several times since his call-up in early May to replace Julio Lugo. There is plenty of reason to believe, however, that his mediocre offensive performance in May is about the best we can expect from him. Over 5+ minor-league seasons, Everett's average has hovered around .250 with no power and few walks, making him the #8 hitter on just about any major-league team. This does not mean he cannot be a valuable player, but that his value is going to come from defense and secondary skills like baserunning and advancing runners. Everett's Zone Rating through May is .859, which is almost identical to his rating last season at the shortstop. While not Gold Glove material, this kind of performance is better than about two-thirds of major league shortstops in any given season.
You can see Zone Rating rankings for SS at ESPN.com: 2003 2002 2001
Jose Vizcaino, SS
Avg OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS April: .125 .186 .150 40 1 5 1 0 0 0 3 5 0 1 May: .302 .327 .415 53 4 16 3 0 1 10 2 9 0 0
Jose Vizcaino's April was so bad that his full-season stats will be depressed for most of this season. A casual fan would see his .225 batting average at the end of May and wonder, "when is this guy ever going to start hitting?". This is why month-by-month breakdowns are useful. Vizcaino is hitting about as well as we should expect, but it will take a long time for a part-time player to turn his .125 Ugly Duckling batting average in April into a .280 Swan batting average by the end of the season. With Julio Lugo permanently off the team, Vizcaino should get plenty of opportunities to redeem his slow start.
Lance Berkman, LF
Avg OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS April: .208 .337 .319 72 13 15 2 0 2 4 12 14 1 1 May: .309 .424 .536 97 19 30 4 0 6 24 19 18 0 1
Lance Berkman rebounded from a miserable month in April back to his old self in May. After driving in just 4 runners in the entire first month of the season, Berkman tied a personal career high with 6 RBI in the very first game of the new month. He enters June with 28 RBI and a more respectable .270 batting average.
The big notable with Berkman remains his extreme left/right differences as a switch hitter. Batting left-handed, Berkman's on-base pct is 127 points higher (.413 to .286) and his slugging is 162 points higher (.478 to .316). This huge difference is typical for Berkman and quite extreme among switch-hitters. Someone should put a bug in his ear to try batting left-handed full time and see if he fares better against left-handed pitchers.
Craig Biggio, CF
Avg OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS April: .243 .306 .423 111 18 27 2 0 6 15 6 20 2 2 May: .327 .398 .464 110 17 36 15 0 0 7 10 21 1 1
The experiment with Craig Biggio in centerfield continues with mixed results. While Biggio is still a better centerfielder than Lance Berkman, that might be considered faint praise. Biggio certainly has the speed necessary to cover a lot of ground in center field, but his Zone Rating now sits at .841, easily in the bottom fourth of the MLB rankings. For Biggio, perspective is important to keep. His offensive performance in May has justified his spot in the everyday lineup, and I have to believe that these first months at a new position will be his worst, defensively.
Hall of Fame watch:Check out Biggio's doubles for May... 15! He entered the season needing just 27 doubles to reach 500, and now he's just 10 doubles shy of that mark. I originally expected Biggio to reach 500 doubles sometime in August, but he looks like he might get there by the end of June. He needs to score 99 runs to reach 1500 for his career, and he is on a pace to reach that milestone by the end of the season as well.
Richard Hidalgo, RF
Avg OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS April: .293 .377 .511 92 14 27 8 0 4 10 11 15 3 0 May: .306 .442 .500 62 14 19 3 0 3 15 13 9 1 1
I said last month that Richard Hidalgo's performance in April was surprising, and I rather enjoyed watching him one-up that performance in May. If Hidalgo is really going to return to his old form, that cannot do anything except help the team. However, there seems to have been some confusion about comments I made about Hidalgo in my April review. I would like to reiterate that I do not believe Hidalgo will never be a good hitter, but that he will never return to the 2000 form that led to his current contract. Hidalgo was a good hitter in 2001, even though many were disappointed with the dropoff from 2000, and he has been a good hitter this year. But will he ever hit well enough to justify the $12 million in salary he will be paid next year? My opinion is that he will not and that $12 million, a big part of the team's total payroll, could be better spent on other areas of need. Thus, my desire that the team trade Hidalgo while he is hitting better than anyone's expectations. Of course, this is all moot while Hidalgo remains on the 15-day Disabled List recovering from a viral infection.
To give you an idea of how well Hidalgo is hitting, he has not slugged over .500 in back-to-back months since June-July, 2000. His monthly performances since 2000 (min 40 at-bats):
Year Month AB HR RBI AVG OBP SLG 2000 April 77 6 21 .247 .372 .571 2000 May 105 10 25 .314 .417 .667 2000 June 69 4 10 .290 .359 .522 2000 July 98 9 19 .286 .349 .622 2000 August 102 4 15 .235 .286 .412 2000 September 103 11 31 .476 .533 .971 2001 April 91 6 22 .319 .373 .615 2001 May 80 3 11 .225 .315 .362 2001 June 73 4 13 .288 .364 .521 2001 July 89 1 9 .258 .380 .360 2001 August 89 2 15 .292 .354 .438 2001 September 71 2 6 .268 .341 .408 2002 April 97 6 19 .237 .312 .495 2002 May 84 4 11 .298 .379 .488 2002 June 90 3 11 .278 .377 .467 2002 July 67 1 4 .149 .208 .239 2002 August 48 1 2 .146 .255 .250
Roy Oswalt, SP
W-L ERA Avg GS IP H R ER HR BB SO April: 2-3 3.86 .244 6 39.2 38 23 17 4 13 34 May: 1-1 2.42 .290 4 26.0 27 7 7 3 7 24 Game Log: Date Opp Inn H R ER BB SO HR Pit 5/4 Flo 7.0 9 2 2 2 5 1 109 5/9 Phi 6.0 6 3 3 3 6 2 102 5/15 Pit 6.0 7 2 2 2 5 0 83 5/31 Chi 7.0 5 0 0 0 8 0 95
Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller were expected to be the foundation of the team's starting rotation when the season began. Chaos ensued in May when Oswalt went on the Disabled List with a strained groin after an awkard slide into second base on May 15th. Fortunately, his outstanding start against Chicago on May 31st helped remind us why he is so important to the team.
One-third of the way through this season, Oswalt is sitting on a deceptive 3-4 record and 3.29 ERA. He has pitched much better than his record indicates, and could still finish with 15 wins and a sub-3.00 ERA this season.
Wade Miller, SP
W-L ERA Avg GS IP H R ER HR BB SO 2002: 15-4 3.28 .249 26 164.2 151 63 60 14 62 144 April: 0-3 6.07 .305 6 29.2 36 22 20 1 17 19 May: 3-3 3.64 .205 6 34.2 25 14 14 4 9 33 Game Log: Date Opp Inn H R ER BB SO HR Pit 5/5 Atl 8.0 3 1 1 1 4 1 97 5/10 Phi 0.1 2 2 2 1 0 0 15 5/14 Pit 5.1 7 3 3 3 5 1 96 5/20 Stl 7.0 3 2 2 0 5 1 92 5/25 Chi 5.0 8 5 5 3 5 0 97 5/30 Chi 9.0 2 1 1 1 14 1 105
Wade Miller is continuing his Jeckyl & Hyde routine from April. Fortunately, he was more Jeckyl than Hyde in May, culminating in his outstanding, 14-strikeout two-hitter against the Cubs on the 30th. If Miller is indeed returning to his 2002 form (15-4, 3.28 ERA), then happy days are here again for Astros fans.
Racking up 14 strikeouts in a game is an impressive feat for any pitcher, and Miller is the first Astro to accomplish the feat since Shane Reynolds did a similar number on the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 15, 1999. Miller now has seven 10-strikeout games to his name, leaving him just one short of making the franchise's all-time Top 10 list for that feat. His career is still young, so he may become the best strikeout starting pitcher we've had since Mike Scott (or Randy Johnson, if you want to count his two-month rental in 1998). If you are interested in 10K games in Astros history, I've already done most of the legwork here.
Brian Moehler, SP
W-L ERA Avg GS IP H R ER HR BB SO April: 0-0 7.90 .379 3 13.2 22 12 12 4 6 5 May: Disabled List - OUT FOR SEASON
Crash and burn. This usually happens with reclamation projects and fortunately the Astros were on the hook for just half a million dollars this time. Sure, that's enough for you and I to last over a decade of double-meat whoppers at Burger King, but Moehler has parlayed it into a spot on the "Worst Astro performances in history" list -- coming soon to a fansite near you. I'd rather have the hamburgers.
Tim Redding, SP
W-L ERA Avg GS IP H R ER HR BB SO April: 2-2 3.29 .274 5 27.1 29 10 10 3 10 21 May: 1-2 3.41 .267 6 34.1 35 14 13 2 18 16 Game Log: Date Opp Inn H R ER BB SO HR Pit 5/3 Flo 5.0 5 2 2 2 1 2 88 5/8 Pit 5.0 5 2 1 5 2 0 112 5/13 Pit 6.0 8 3 3 3 1 0 86 5/18 Phi 6.0 3 3 3 5 5 0 104 5/24 Chi 6.2 7 3 3 1 4 0 103 5/29 Stl 5.2 7 1 1 2 3 0 97
Tim Redding continued to pitch effectively in May with similar results. Probably the only concerns for Redding at this point are his inability to go deep into a game and his deterioriating walk/strikeout rates. His longest outing of the season was his first start, 7 innings on April 5th in St. Louis. At age 25, the Astros really do not need to pamper his arm and should probably ease up on the unspoken pitch count limit he is apparently operating under. If you look at the games in which Redding has tossed at least 5 innings but given up three runs or less, you'd find these pitch counts: 94, 103, 92, 99, 88, 112, 86, 104, 103, 97.
Now I understand that it would not be hard to look at each of these games and rationalize why pulling Redding early was justified in each game. But, at some point, the Astros are going to have to let Redding toss that extra inning or two if they want him to become a quality starter rather than a guy who is always relying on 3 innings from the bullpen. He is pitching quite well, but those early hooks are a big reason why he only has 3 wins this season.
Jeriome Robertson, SP
W-L ERA Avg GS IP H R ER HR BB SO April: 1-3 7.99 .313 5 23.2 30 24 21 3 11 22 May: 2-0 4.94 .320 5 23.2 31 13 13 2 7 15 Game Log: Date Opp Inn H R ER BB SO HR Pit 5/1 Atl 4.1 7 5 5 0 1 1 75 5/16 Phi 6.0 9 2 2 2 4 0 98 5/22 Stl 5.2 4 1 1 0 4 1 83 5/27 Stl 6.0 7 3 3 2 5 0 108
Shipped down to New Orleans after yet another bad start on May 1st, Robertson was back up again two weeks later when his replacement, Kirk Saarloos, looked even worse that Robertson. Surprisingly, Robertson has looked better on the mound since his return. He's allowing fewer hits and walks, and his post-demotion ERA as a starter is 3.06. We saw a similar effect last season when Saarloos was demoted after a shaky start and performed well on a return visit to the majors.
Billy Wagner, RP
W-L ERA Avg G IP H R ER HR BB SO April: 1-1 1.80 .192 12 15.0 10 4 3 1 6 16 May: 0-1 1.59 .180 16 17.0 11 3 3 1 1 24
Billy Wagner remains a stud. He had a great month in April but pitched even better in May. He should break Dave Smith's franchise record for saves in June, so keep an eye out for that. He needs just 4 to get the record and also reach 200 for his career. That should be a Kodak moment. Go, Billy! Here are the all-time franchise leaders through May 31st:
Player SV 1. Dave Smith 199 2. Billy Wagner 196 3. Fred Gladding 76 4. Joe Sambito 72 5. Doug Jones 62 6. Ken Forsch 50 7. Frank DiPino 43 8. Todd Jones 39 9. Hal Woodeshick 36 10. John Hudek 29
Wagner is signed through 2004 and the Astros have an option on him for the 2005 season, so expect Billy to put some distance between Smith and himself while he remains with the team.
Octavio Dotel, RP
W-L ERA Avg G IP H R ER HR BB SO April: 1-1 2.08 .167 11 13.0 7 3 3 1 5 14 May: 2-0 1.02 .119 15 17.2 7 2 2 1 5 23
After watching Jimy Williams burn through a handful of relievers for the umpteenth time this season, I started wondering about what effect the heavy use of the bullpen would have on pitchers. In particular, how do relievers pitch when they've also pitched on the previous day? With that in mind, I did a quick study for 2001-2002 and came out with these results for the team's different relievers:
Billy Wagner, 2001-2002 year AB H 2B 3B HR RBI AVG OBP SLG BB IBB K HBP DP no rest 118 32 7 0 4 16 .271 .353 .432 13 1 40 2 4 rested 364 63 14 0 8 28 .173 .244 .277 29 4 127 5 10 Ricky Stone, 2002 year AB H 2B 3B HR RBI AVG OBP SLG BB IBB K HBP DP no rest 94 28 3 0 4 19 .298 .383 .457 12 2 19 1 3 rested 199 50 7 1 5 29 .251 .326 .372 22 1 44 0 7 Brandon Puffer, 2002 year AB H 2B 3B HR RBI AVG OBP SLG BB IBB K HBP DP no rest 80 27 7 0 0 16 .338 .430 .425 11 2 11 2 3 rested 180 40 6 2 3 23 .222 .333 .328 27 6 37 3 5 Octavio Dotel, 2001-2002 year AB H 2B 3B HR RBI AVG OBP SLG BB IBB K HBP DP no rest 145 21 7 1 0 9 .145 .211 .207 11 1 48 1 1 rested 575 116 19 2 12 54 .202 .286 .304 63 3 216 5 8
Pete Munro was excluded from this list because he never pitched on consecutive days last season. As you can see, every pitcher except Dotel performs much better after a day off than after a day of work. With Dotel, he seems to pitch better on a second straight day of work. These trends hold up for each individual season for each pitcher, so I'm less inclined to write it off as a statistical fluke. Obviously, common wisdom tells us that relievers will pitch better after a day of rest.
Does anyone have an idea why Dotel is different? Does he have one of those fabled "rubber arms" that can pitch day after day without losing any effectiveness? It is really amazing when you think about how hard Dotel throws. Whatever the reason, it is still a valuable observation that most of our bullpen will pitch significantly worse after a day of work. Look at the results: last season, both Brandon Puffer and Ricky Stone were better pitchers, when rested, than Billy Wagner on a second straight day of work. Surely, that is useful information to have when deciding who to warm up for the 7th inning.
Ricky Stone, RP
W-L ERA Avg G IP H R ER HR BB SO April: 1-0 1.93 .294 10 14.0 15 3 3 0 8 9 May: 3-1 1.86 .172 12 19.1 11 5 4 1 6 7
Ricky Stone best exemplifies the embarrassment of riches the Astros are enjoying in the bullpen nowadays. It is hard to believe that, with an outstanding ERA of 1.89, Stone is just the fourth-best reliever in the Houston bullpen. Unlike Wagner, Dotel, and Lidge, Stone's primary weapon is the ground ball. 61% of all outs recorded by Stone have come from the groundout, whereas his three peers rely heavily on the strikeout. The recent call-up of defensive wiz Adam Everett at shortstop should really help Stone throughout the season.
Also of note is the change in how Stone is used this season. Last year as a rookie, Stone cratered after the All-Star break and pitched terribly. Whether this was from overwork or other issues is up for debate. Nevertheless, Stone tossed 77.1 innings in 78 appearances. He is currently on a slower pace in appearances (projects to 69), but a much higher pace in innings pitched (projects to 100).
Pete Munro, RP
W-L ERA Avg G IP H R ER HR BB SO April: 1-1 3.06 .188 12 17.2 12 7 6 1 10 10 May: 2-2 9.60 .403 11 15.0 27 17 16 4 9 8 Start Log: Date Opp Inn H R ER BB SO HR Pit 5/21 StL 2.0 6 5 5 1 1 1 50 5/26 StL 3.1 8 6 5 2 2 1 66
Danger, danger, Will Robinson. Pete Munro took a brutal beating from hitters in May. It was easily his worst month since April, 2000 when opposing hitters throttled Munro with a .432 average while he was a member of the Blue Jays. His worst outings were his two disastrous starts near the end of the month against St. Louis when he allowed 17 runners and 11 runs in just 5.1 innings. With Roy Oswalt returning from the Disabled List, we can only hope that Munro won't be getting any more starts for a while. But even if those starts are removed from his pitching line, May was still a down month (5.59 ERA) for Munro. You have to wonder how long Munro can hold his job on the team when the rest of the bullpen is pitching so well.
Brad Lidge, RP
W-L ERA Avg G IP H R ER HR BB SO April: 2-0 1.02 .172 12 17.2 10 2 2 0 7 18 May: 1-0 2.25 .182 14 16.0 11 5 4 0 9 20
Brad Lidge finally looked a little human in May, giving up three runs in an inning of work on May 29th after 10 consecutive outings without allowing a run. Nevertheless, he followed that rough outing two days later with three dominant innings (6 strikeouts) in that 16-inning marathon on May 31st. His secondary numbers (walk/strikeout rate, opposing avg) in May were repeats of his excellent performance in April, proving that the first month was not a fluke.
The bullpen triumvirate of Wagner, Dotel and Lidge could very well be the most dominant in franchise history. All three sport high strikeout rates and are very stingy with opposing hitters. I am trying to recall a time when the Astros had such a dominant threesome in the bullpen, but I am stumped. And then there's Ricky Stone with his 1.89 ERA bringing up the #4 spot. Amazing.
Nate Bland, RP
W-L ERA Avg G IP H R ER HR BB SO May: 1-0 6.30 .317 12 10.0 13 7 7 2 6 9
Nate Bland is the kind of guy I instinctively root for. A rookie at age 29, Bland has endured two surgeries and a handful of minor-league organizations before finally making it to the majors. So you can imagine what I thought of his debut when he came in to mop up a big, 9th-inning lead and was pulled after Kenny Lofton blooped his second pitch into centerfield. Perhaps my words about Jimy Williams were a little harsh that night. The next day, Williams was ejected in the first inning and Bland earned his first major-league win in relief when Jeff Bagwell finished off a dramatic six-run, 8th-inning rally. It was an awesome game that also inspired my favorite headline of the season, "Bland win excites crowd".
That said, Nate Bland is not going to be a dominant pitcher in the majors. However, he is a left-handed pitcher that has had success against left-handed batters. Lefties are batting .278 against Bland while righties are hitting at a .368 clip. While that alone seems like a big difference, right-handed hitters are absolutely crushing Bland with a .789 slugging pct (vs. .318 for lefties). Bland has been in the majors for just a month, so a big caveat is that we are dealing with very small sample sizes. Still, there seems to be little reason for Bland to face righties (19 at-bats) as often as lefties (22 at-bats) unless his role is going to be strictly as a mop-up reliever when games have already been decided.
Brandon Puffer, RP
W-L ERA Avg G IP H R ER HR BB SO April: 0-0 9.00 .300 2 5.0 6 6 5 0 5 3 May: 0-0 3.60 .278 9 15.0 15 6 6 2 11 7
With the stellar work from the rest of the bullpen, Brandon Puffer became a casualty and was sent down to AAA when Roy Oswalt was activated from the Disabled List. It was an easy choice to make; giving up 11 walks and 15 hits in 15 innings is not good. His 3.60 ERA was deceptively low and Puffer was fortunate to leave a lot of runners stranded on base. In any given season, you can expect a run to score for every 2.5 walks and hits allowed (see table below). By that measure, Puffer would have been expected to give up 10 runs instead of 6 based on the number of runners he allowed to reach base.
National League Year H BB R H+BB/R 2002 1441 589 749 2.71 2001 1500 581 847 2.46 2000 1547 673 938 2.37 1999 1463 728 823 2.66 1998 1578 621 874 2.52
Kirk Saarloos, RP
W-L ERA Avg G IP H R ER HR BB SO 2002: 6-7 6.01 .301 17 85.1 100 59 57 12 27 54 May: 1-0 7.82 .300 7 12.2 15 12 11 2 6 16 Start Log: Date Opp Inn H R ER BB SO HR Pit 5/6 Pit 2.0 4 5 4 2 4 0 46 5/11 Phi 4.1 7 7 7 2 3 2 82
Kirk Saarloos was dominating in AAA-New Orleans this year (4-0, 2.34 ERA) when he received a call-up to replace Jeriome Robertson in the starting rotation. Sadly, he pitched very poorly and has since been relegated to the bullpen. Cross your fingers because Saarloos has since tossed over 6 scoreless innings in the bullpen while striking out 9. If he is indeed better suited for the bullpen, then it will be nice to have a pitcher who can give the team 2-3 quality innings when needed.
Scott Linebrink, RP
W-L ERA Avg G IP H R ER HR BB SO April: 0-1 3.38 .267 4 8.0 8 3 3 1 1 3 May: 1-0 4.38 .337 6 24.2 32 12 12 3 13 14 Start Log: Date Opp Inn H R ER BB SO HR Pit 5/23 Chi 5.0 8 4 4 2 2 1 95
What a tough break for Scott Linebrink. He gets an emergency start in the rotation, picks up his first major-league win and then gets released. He admittedly didn't look that sharp, but he is only 26 and seemed to be given far less rope than other pitchers in the organization. San Diego has picked him up on waivers so hopefully he will get a fair shot in that organization.
In Closing...
Whew, this is a lot of work; I am glad this is just once per month! I hope that you enjoyed the recap and please don't hesitate to point out any errors. My proofreading is pretty weak and my memory is even worse! If you have any suggestions or questions regarding the content or format this column, feel free to email me at ray@astrosdaily.com or post a comment to our Message Forum.
Ray
p.s. If you are ever wondering, "where in the heck does he find all of those stats?", then you can check out this link.