It's that time of year again. Time for Fearless Predictions.

We asked a panel of the Astros Daily staff, and several outside experts, for their prognostications for the Astros' 2006 season.

Our thanks go out to James Anderson, Scott Barzilla, Bob Hulsey, John Lauck, Willie B. Lakey, Bill McCurdy, and the usual suspects.

Here then are your Fearless Predictions for 2006...

James Anderson

Having been asked to make predictions on several Astros related topics, I would like to add that any prediction is based on sheer opinion no matter what kind of statistical information one might be armed with. With the major leagues now using a playoff system employing a wild card team, it is even more difficult to make a legitimate prediction about how successful a team may or may not be in any given year. Case in point, the 2005 Astros and the 1998 Astros. The 1998 Astros won 102 games and were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs by the Padres and the 2005 Astros who finished with only 89 wins making the playoffs as the wild card entry and making it all the way to the World Series. And, an example of simply trying to guage an individual ballplayers long term or short term success one need only to look at former Astros outfielder Richard Hidalgo to see how difficult that is. Taking all of the above in mind, I have included my predictions on the following list of topics. Good or bad, here they are.

• Surprise player of the year - If there are going to be any surprises this year, it likely will come in the name of one Chris Burke who has shown potential to be a big league hitter at times and yet at other times, has appeared to be simply in over his head against major league pitchers. Early in the year, manager Phil Garner experimented with Burke and Willy Taveras as a sort of hit a run duo that led to some important runs and exciting baserunning. Garner will likely want to remploy the idea again this year because both Burke and Taveras now have a full year under their belt and may improve dramatically on that particular style of base running offense. As a result, I predict Chris Burke as the surprise player of the year.
• Comeback player of the year - Comeback player of the year is almost a no-brainer here. It'll either be Jeff Bagwell or no one at all as for as the Astros are concerned.
• Position player of the year - Willy Taveras could become the position player of the year, the reason being, he showed flashes of being a brilliant centerfielder at times and at other times appeared to play the position like a fish out of water as it were but because of the raw talent that Taveras possesses along with a gun of a throwing arm, I believe his improvement in centerfield will impress enough to make him Position Player of the Year. Of course, this could be negated if he becomes a real deteriment to the team at the plate.
• Pitcher of the year - Pitcher of the year will depend on whether Roger Clemens returns. Even at 43 years old last year he was clearly the best pitcher on the Astros staff but as was the case the previous year, he started wearing down near the end of the season due to his age. If Clemens returns to full-time starting pitcher status by June of this year, he will not only start strong as he usually does but will also finish strong making him a shoo-in for the Pitcher of the Year. If Clemens does not return, it'll be a toss-up between Andy Pettitte and Roy Oswalt.
• Let-down player of the year - This is a particular topic that I usually like to avoid but is indeed an intriguing one. My first inclination was to pick Brad Ausmus as the letdown player of the year. Mainly do to his deteriorating defensive skills which will deteriorate even more in 2006 but my gut feeling is that Adam Everett may turn out as the one player that will disappoint this year. I don't see his hitting improving any. In fact, I believe opposing pitchers will pretty much challenge him at the plate with dramatic results. I hope I'm wrong. The other who has an outside chance of being the let-down player of the year is Willy Taveras. The reason being, is the opposing pitchers will definitely start challenging him this year and abandon completely trying to hit the corners on him. If Willy doesn't learn how to be more selective this year and more disciplined at the plate, he will fall out of grace quickly as the Astros potential long term answer to centerfield.
• The fate of Bagwell and Clemens - This is likely the most impossible topic to predict but my gut feeling tells me that Roger Clemens will return. As for Mr. Bagwell, he hasn't been able to toss the ball to home plate or to second base for the last three years and I don't see that changing at all. I donot see how Bagwell can play a defensive position everyday ever again. I wish I were wrong and if there is any topic that I'm completely wrong on, I hope it is this one. The best case scenario for Jeff Bagwell would be to finish his career as a DH in the American League because it is the only way he will be able to attain 500 career home runs.
• Where will the Astros' finish in the NL Central standings (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc., and behind or ahead of whom)? - The St. Louis Cardinals are simply the best everyday team in the National League when healthy and they were a long way from being completely healthy when the season ended last year. I pick the Astros to again finish second to the Cardinals but with a much better won/loss record.
• Will the Astros make the playoffs? If so, what are the likely matchups and outcomes? - The Astros will make the playoffs again as the wild card finishing second behind the Cardinals in the NL Central. If the Astros can avoid being devestated by the Flu and Pneumonia as was the case early in the season last year that landed several key players in the hospital, I think the Astros will easily eclipse their 89 wins of last season and finish possibly between 95 and 97 wins. The Astros will face either the Mets or Braves in the playoffs defeating either of who they face. The Cardinals will run through the Western division challengers meeting the Astros for the 2006 NLCS. If the Cardinals are completely healthy at the end of the season this year, they'll be too much for the Astros to handle and make their second trip in three years to the World Series. If the Astros can catch the Cardinals a bit nicked up as they were last year, they'll again take the Pennent. This all depends of course on whether Roger Clemens returns to the Astros starting line up in 2006. Without Roger in the rotation, it's hard to predict where they will finish in 2006. They could be overcome by the Pirates in the NL Central division or by either the Mets or Phillies in the East and the Giants or Dodgers in the west and not make the playoffs at all.

Finally, the success of the 2006 Astros depends on several keys, the continuing dominance of the bullpen, mainly Brad Lidge and Dan Wheeler and solid years from Pettitte and Oswalt and the return of Clemens. Also, Morgan Ensberg will need to put up another year as he did in 2005 and hopefully stay healthy all season this time, another solid year from Lane, the continued improvement of Willy Taveras in centerfield and another one of those outstanding years from Lance Berkman that he was capable of before he blew out that knee and an injury free year from acquisition Preston Wilson. If the Astros can get some real improvement from the likes of Chris Burke and pitcher Brandon Backe the Astros will be ok for 2006 even without spectacular performaces from the number 5 spot in the pitching rotation. In my opinion, the 2006 Astros 25 man roster will not include Jeff Bagwell but if Preston Wilson can hit as he has proven in the past when not slowed by injury, he will make up for the power void left by Jeff Bagwell.

Scott Barzilla

Surprise Player of the Year – Astros

I personally am going to tab Ezequiel Astacio for this one. His K/BB ratios were very impressive last year and he looked really good at times. According to Spring Training witnesses, he is showing more maturity when he has to face adversity. That’s the key with him.

Surprise Player of the Year – Major League Baseball

It’s hard to call Brad Wilkerson a surprise player, but I think a lot of people will be surprised by the numbers he will put up in Arlington. He is going from the second worst hitters park in the National League to the best hitters park in the American League. Surrounding himself with the likes of Teixeira, Blalock, and Young won’t hurt either.

Comeback Player of the Year – Jose Vidro

I know, I know, come back from what? Well, the last couple of years have been down years for Vidro and he now has extra incentive to produce for the Nationals. He could be traded later in the Spring if the club decides to keep Soriano.

Position Player of the Year

This one is an easy one. The position player of the year will be Albert Pujols yet again. In a normal world, he would have won the last three MVPs awards, but cattle boy had something to say about that. Pujols is well on his way in becoming the Lou Gehrig of our generation.

Pitcher of the Year

Everyone knows me by now and know I’m not a ridiculous homer. However, I have to say this is the year of Roy O. His batting average on balls in play was excessively high last season which means he might actually see his ERA go down under normal circumstances. If you couple that with improved run support he will be the Chris Carpenter of 2006.

Let Down Player of the Year

When we look for let down players we must look for teams that consistently let us down. For me, that is the New York Mets. It will be a race between Pedro Martinez’s toe, Tom Glavine’s graying hair, or Billy Wagner. I’m going with Wagner.

What’s the fate of Bagwell and Clemens?

Clemens will retire and probably not come back while Bagwell will be disabled so he can collect his money.

Where will the Astros finish in the standings?

The Astros will finish third in the standings behind the Cardinals and Cubs. While the Cubs have issues with Wood and Prior, they will have enough hitting, relief pitching, and young pitching to come in second.

Will the Astros make the playoffs?

No.

Bob Hulsey

I think the Astros have an excellent chance to return to the World Series this year, not because the Astros are a juggernaut but because nobody else in the league is either. The other two contenders are the Braves and the Cardinals. The Braves will rely on a lot of young players and have a major hole in the bullpen they can't seem to fill. The Cards will be weaker offensively without Larry Walker and Reggie Sanders. I also think Junior Spivey is not the answer at second base. If Scott Rolen doesn't return to form, the Redbirds are going to need to depend on pitching.

The Mets did the most to improve this winter but it remains to be seen if the collection of parts can mesh into a championship-caliber team. I have some doubts. The Phillies, Marlins and Nationals are all likely to regress from their successes of last year. In the Central, the Cubs are still trying to build something around Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. I don't think they are there yet. The Reds, Pirates and Brewers are all on the upswing but none of them will do more than provide a scare unless lightning strikes them.

The West is a mess. I think the Padres will emerge again as the winner but there isn't anyone out there that makes me think they could play better than .530 baseball.

As for the Astros, there are two obvious wild cards - Jeff Bagwell and Roger Clemens. Both will return but not as productive as we've seen them in the past. The pitching staff will be solid - with or without the Rocket - but maybe not as spectacular. I think Roy Oswalt will fall short of 20 wins but may get more media respect after his postseason performances. Andy Pettitte is a real question mark to me. He showed last year what he can do when healthy but it's a roll of the dice whether he survives the season. It's a contract year for him and I'm not sure that this won't be his last season with the Astros.

Brandon Backe is nails in home playoff games so he is good to have around but he needs to show he can pitch that well the rest of the year. He needs to keep his walks down. I expect Wandy Rodriguez to have a better year than last season. Ezekiel Astacio also has potential to break through but his throwing motion scares the crap out of me. I see a rotator cuff surgery in his future. There are some talented pitchers in the high minors waiting their turn so there is depth but I'd still like to see a veteran with playoff experience come here as insurance for Clemens.

Offensively, the two guys you are likely to see less of this year are Willy Taveras and Mike Lamb. The outfield will be crowded, especially if Jeff Bagwell reclaims first, forcing Lance Berkman to the outfield where Jason Lane and Preston Wilson also figure to start. The Astros are committed to getting 300 ABs from Chris Burke, which will further erode Taveras' role.

Craig Biggio will continue his stellar play at second base and I expect he will wind up with around 150 hits, leaving him some 55 short of 3,000 which he'll get as an Astro in 2007. Morgan Ensberg will see a slight drop in production but improvement by Berkman, Lane and possibly Bagwell plus the addition of Wilson will offset that.

The Astros will score more than last year but they will still struggle against lefthanders, still strike out too much, still squander too many scoring chances and still hear boos from time to time when they get into a drought. They are more like the mashers of 2004 so expect some uneven performances.

Ultimately, I think the Astros will win 90-93 games and make the playoffs. From there, it all depends on who's hot and who's healthy. On paper, the Cardinals should have murdered us last year but they showed up at the LCS a physically beaten team. They'll have some momentum out of playing in a new home (that seems to help everyone but us). I'd still list the Cardinals as the favorite starting the season but last year is proof that it means little when you get to October.

John Lauck

THE BATTING ORDER

1. Craig Biggio 2B
2. Jeff Bagwell 1B
3. Lance Berkman LF
4. Morgan Ensberg 3B
5. Preston Wilson CF
6. Jason Lane RF
7. Brad Ausmus C
8. Adam Everett SS

Right now, it looks like Bagwell will try to play in ST, although no one will no for certain until and unless he steps onto the field toward the end of this month. I believe that the ballclub will continue from behind closed doors to try to discourage Bagwell from playing right up until position players report, but I don't think they'll physically try to prevent him from working out. To do so would be a public relations disaster. Barry Axelrod says that Bagwell's shoulder is as good right now as it's been in several seasons. We'll see whether those words merely reflect an agent looking out for the interests of his client or whether Bagwell's shoulder *has* improved. To be truly helpful to the Astros in 2006, Bagwell's shoulder would have to be in the condition it was in 2000 or in early 2001, and that does not seem likely to me. If Bagwell cannot go, Berkman takes his spot at 1B, Wilson goes to LF, and Willy Taveras comes off the Houston bench to play CF, lead off, and drop Biggio to second in the order.

*If* Bagwell can hit and throw, Houston's lineup is going to be very good. If he can't do those things every day, then the Astros will be less impressive, though improved over the often-run-starved team of last season.

THE ROTATION

1. Roy Oswalt
2. Andy Pettitte
3. Brandon Backe
4. Wandy Rodriguez
5. Ezequiel Astacio

Assuming for the moment that Roger Clemens does not come back, Brandon Backe is the key to making this rotation work. Oswalt is one of the best pitchers in baseball; Pettitte will be solid again, although perhaps not quite as good as last year, because age and time will offset the rest he's given his elbow this off-season. The Astros need three top-flight SPs, and now is the time, as he enters his third season as a starter (with a little less than two actual seasons as an SP behind him), that Backe will be needed to step up and give the Astros consistently-good outings. He's got the stuff; what management needs to see out of him is better command. Wandy Rodriguez could make some small improvement in his pitching--he's got some poise out there, and a plan when he works--but the objective truth is that the Astros don't really know what what they're going to get out of either Rodriguez or Astacio--not with the degree of certainty that they know Oswalt or Pettitte or Backe will do the job. Astacio probably has enough game to hold off the challenge of Taylor Buchholz and Fernando Nieve in ST, but if he doesn't, I look for Steve Sparks, the knuckleballer or Nieve to step into the rotation in June or July.

If Clemens comes back, he'll come back to Houston, and pitch in the # 3 or # 4 slot, with Backe and Rodriguez sliding down in the rotation.

SURPRISE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Luke Scott. How big a surprise he'll be depends on the playing time he gets. If Bagwell can't go, and Berkman has to move to 1B, that will open a bench spot for Scott (among others), and Scott showed signs in September last season of being able to hit with power. The Astros will need his lefty bat somewhere along the way.

SURPRISE PITCHER OF THE YEAR: Fernando Nieve. Tough call. I think Steve Sparks could alternatively be a surprise and give the Astros some innings they didn't expect, but Nieve seems a better candidate to do that sort of thing. As most young Houston pitchers do, I expect him to work for a while out of the bullpen, but the time will come when Houston needs another starter, and Nieve could be it. Taylor Buchholz has been mentioned in this role also, but I'm a little worried about the way the organization has had to protect his arm. He might not be the man for the job--this year.

LET-DOWN PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Jeff Bagwell. A superb player, one who ought to be in the Hall of Fame someday, but even if he does well this season, his production will be less than the standard he's upheld for himself over his career.

LET-DOWN PITCHER OF THE YEAR: Ezequiel Astacio. Astacio did some good pitching in several post-Katrina games I didn't see in 2005, and he had one really good game against the Cubs in September, I think it was, that I did see. But consistency of command is his problem, and his tendency to leave pitches over the heart of the plate makes him the most frightening pitcher the Astros have had on the mound since Jim Clancy.

PLAYER THE ASTROS ARE MOST LIKELY TO MISS IN 2006: Jose Vizcaino, both on the field and in the clubhouse. If the Bagwell-management relationship blows up in the press during the season, the Astros will need a calm voice, someone with both poise and humor. Who will provide it? You'd think Biggio, but Biggio might be too close to the Bagwell situation to be helpful. Berkman might also step up to relieve some tension, but Houston will miss Vizcaino's laughter off the field and his versatility on it.

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Adam Everett. Everett is not and will never be a great hitter, but I think he's due for a peak year with the bat in 2006. Physically, he's as good right now as he's going to get, and mentally, he should be far less worried than he was last year, now that his young daughter is recovering and doing well.

POSITION PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Lance Berkman. Let the record show that Gary Gaetti thinks the world of Jason Lane, and that Preston Wilson has found a ballpark that's just his size; but when all the swings have been taken and the dust settles around home plate in 2006, Lance Berkman is the man we will look back on as the best representative of Houston's offense in 2006. It's going to be a great year for him, his best since his monster season of 2002.

THE FATE OF BAGWELL AND CLEMENS: I think Bagwell plays, and management lets him play to avoid the PR fallout. (The insurance company denies the claim.) He starts at 1B and has a below league-average season, say, (.247/10/52) *if* Phil Garner sticks with him for that long. Clemens will come back to Houston after May 1 and win seven games in the regular season.

HOW THE ASTROS WILL FINISH: 92-70, The NL Wild Card team (edging out the Mets this year, rather than the Phillies), 2nd place in the NL Central, two games behind division-winner St. Louis. Behind the Astros in the Central will be Chicago, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh.

THE PLAYOFFS: Houston gets by the Braves in the NLDS 3-2. St. Louis beats LA 3-1 in the other series, and the Cardinals beat Houston 4-3 in the NLCS.

In the AL, Cleveland wins the Wild Card and takes out the Yankees 3-1 in the ALDS. Anaheim gets revenge on the White Sox by beating them 3-2 in the other division series, and beats Cleveland 4-2 in the ALCS. In the World Series, Anaheim beats St. Louis 4-3.

Willie B. Lakey

I’ve picked the Astros third in the NL Central the past two seasons and things have worked out pretty well. So that’s where I’m picking them again this year, partly out of superstition and partly because that’s where I truly see them ending up at this time. I’d much rather be pleasantly surprised, as I have been in 2004-05, than be downright disappointed after setting my hopes too high.

The Cardinals have to be the favorite, at least they’ve earned that. I’m putting the Cubs #2 even though I know they’re the Cubs and my friends who are Cubs fans constantly remind me they’re cursed. The Brewers are a close fourth behind Houston with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati bringing up the rear.

Overall in the National League, I have the Braves, Cardinals and Dodgers as division favorites with the Mets the early wildcard leader. The Braves are pretty much the same as the Cards in that they’ve pretty much earned the NL East favorite’s role. I think you can make a case for just about anyone not named the Rockies in the NL West. And the Mets have simply made too many improvements (on paper) not to be in the mix. The Cubs, Padres and our beloved Astros could and should be in the hunt at least.

I am completely bored with all of the Roger Clemens, Jeff Bagwell stories this offseason. Ideally, they both will wear Astros jerseys and play key roles in another Astros postseason run. I am, in fact, still counting on Bagwell to be part of some 1B-OF rotation that also includes Lance Berkman, Jason Lane, Preston Wilson and Willy Taveras, among others. And I don’t think any team can offer Clemens the combination of money and playing for the hometown like Houston can. But if one or the either isn’t here, then I say play on and let’s root for the 25 who are.

My gut says Roy Oswalt should be one of the NL Cy Young contenders, so I’ll pick him for our top pitcher. And both Berkman and Morgan Ensberg should have legs up on the rest of the crew for the top position player. Superstition prevents me from picking the best candidate for a letdown or disappointment. And the surprise player of 2006 might be someone we don’t even have on the roster right now since I foresee a fairly significant trade between now and Opening Day. Again, that’s just a gut feeling, either that or gas since we had fish tacos this evening for dinner.

After watching the team fall out of races in the past, the last two seasons have been remarkable for the team and the fans. Seeing comebacks and rallies like we had in either season just once in a lifetime is a decent enough memory. Having two of them back-to-back is nothing short of amazing. And if there’s something I’ve learned from the 2004 and 2005 seasons, it’s that the old baseball adage about seeing something new every game and every season really is true and nothing is impossible in the game.

Still, in this, my 45th season as a fan, a real cakewalk through October would do my old heart well!

Bill McCurdy

I think that Oswalt, Pettitte, and Backe will be our top 3 starters going into May and that Roger will re-join the club in May in superb condition and with a better stamina prospect for doing very well over the range of his shorter season. If he can remain injury free, and that's no sure thing at his age, Clemens will have the stamina to be successful through October. Barring the improbable repeat of his poor support from the offense on the same 2005-impotence level, he will pick up 15 wins easy. The aforementioned Big 3 all have a shot at 20 wins. If they do, Wandy will need to be as effective as you hope. Maybe we will have to bring up a guy like Nieve - or trade for someone. At any rate, we should have enough pitching with our pen to reach 90-95 wins and grab the WC again at least. - My gut feeling tells me we may even catch the Cardinals, in spite of the "improvements" they've made this year. - The X Factor for the Cards? Will their new ballpark add or subtract 5 wins in 2006? Depends on how they react, They may be boosted by it. Or they may choke a little from too much new creature comfort and the absence of a home field advantage for a while.

I like your calls on the way the season plays out - including the Brewers coming on. I'll even bump the Brewers to finish 3rd ahead of the 4th place Cubs. - If the Mets don't screw up, all the talent they've aacquired this off-season should sail them past the Phils and Braves in the NL East. Here are my calls:

NLDS

Astros WC > Giants NLW and Mets NLE > Cardinals NLC

NLCS

Astros > Mets, 4-2

WS

Astros > White Sox, 4-3.

With our pitching and better hitting, we can do it. On offense, I see Biggio staying hot as he chases 3,000 hits; Ensberg, Lane, and Taveras getting better; Berkman getting better by recovery from his surgery; Preston Wilson producing and making the others better by his presence in the lineup. We will have more money, if the Bagwell mess is settled, but we won't need a KKKKKKK guy like Dunn, unless he can catch or play shortstop. Ausmus is our guy for pitcher handling, but it would be nice if could early in the year as well as he does late. As for Everett at SS, we give up a lot of offense with him in exchange for a lot of defense.

Oh well. We can't have everything. .... Can we? .... We can try!

What we do with Burke troubles me. If he could play SS even close to Adam, he would be an answer there, but that's not his spot - nor is LF. Burke is an excellent 2B prospect waiting on a franchise icon to retire. He's also due a starting chance somewhere now and could get traded if all those things I wrote about above fall into place. He won't have a starting role here until at least late April 2007. That's about the time that Biggio hits # 3,000, barring unforseen obstacles.

Darrell Pittman

The Cards, on paper, are still the team to beat in the NL Central, but the Brewers will surprise many and make a run at it. The Cards will win the division, but the Astros will win the NL Wildcard.

The Cubs will finish fourth behind the Brewers' third place, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati being back in the distance.

The Astros will sign Clemens after he finishes the WBC and rests up. He will begin pitching around June 15. No reason for Clemens not to sign: his kid Koby is a 3B in the Astros' minor league system, and Rocket's fat and happy pitching at home.

Houston will have had to reach down to the farm for rotation help early in the season, probably Fernando Nieve taking the #5 spot, in mid-May I would think. He's ready. Wandy Rodriguez will be established in the 4 spot by then. Ezequiel Astacio will have been traded, released, or sent down by that time. The Astros' front three at that time will be Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte, and Brandon Backe.

Backe will have a breakout year, perhaps reaching 20 wins. The kid pitches his heart out, and this will be his third season. I think he will surpass Roy Oswalt when all is said and done.

The retirement of Jeff Bagwell will free up some money and lead to a major trade-deadline signing around the All-Star break. Maybe a pitcher, maybe a bat. Certainly the latter if Clemens is on board. It depends on who's on the market at that time. Adam Dunn, a Houston boy, comes to mind. Players love to come home to Houston, at a discount. Sadly, we will most likely have to part with Chris Burke to get Dunn, Burke never having established a permanent home in Houston's overcrowded outfield.

The Astros will repeat as the NL Wildcard for the third straight year, second place in the NL Central behind the Cards. The Cards will bow out to the Phils (winner of the NL East) in an NLDS, while the Astros will top the Giants (NL West winner). The Astros will top the Phils in the NLCS to reach the World Series, 3 games to 1.

The White Sox have improved so much in the off-season, you have to like their chances in '06. I'm predicting a repeat World Series... Astros-White Sox. And the White Sox win it again, 4 games to 2.