Astros 93, Cubs 92, Cardinals 91

added 8/30/2001 by Steve Cutchen

With ten series remaining for the Astros, Cubs and Cardinals, each has five home and home series left. As these series go by, how can we tell how the Astros are doing, based on the differences in the schedule? Well, I took a stab at it.

What I did was to predict, somewhat pessimistically, how the Astros should do in these last ten series. I predicted 92 wins. Then I predicted how the Cubs and Cardinals would do, with the constraint that all three teams would have to end up tied at the end of the season; all three end up with 92 wins.

Now, I plan to track the actual performance of each team in each series against my prediction. From this, I can estimate how many "schedule-corrected" wins each team is on track to make.

Let me show you the data for the first series, and it will make more sense.

ASTROS

Opponent
Prediction
Actual
+ / -
Cincinnati
2-1
3-0
+ 1
@ Milwaukee
2-1
@ Cincinnati
1-2
Milwaukee
3-1
San Francisco
1-2
@ St. Louis
1-2
@ San Francisco
1-2
Chicago
2-1
St. Louis
2-1
@ Chicago
2-2

Cubs

Opponent
Prediction
Actual
+ / -
Florida
2-1
2-1
even
@ Atlanta
1-2
@ Florida
2-1
Atlanta
2-1
Cincinnati
3-1
Pittsburgh
3-0
@ Cincinnati
2-1
@ Houston
1-2
@ Pittsburgh
2-1
Houston
2-2

Cardinals

Opponent
Prediction
Actual
+ / -
San Diego
3-0
2-1
- 1
@ Los Angeles
2-1
@ San Diego
2-1
Los Angeles
2-1
@ Milwaukee
2-2
Houston
2-1
Milwaukee
3-0
@ Pittsburgh
2-2
@ Houston
1-2
Pittsburgh
3-0

So the Astros are 1 game better than the prediction after 1 series, the Cubs are on the prediction, and the Cardinals are 1 game behind.

This means the final predicted wins at this point are 93, 92 and 91.

That's my Knuckleball. Try to hit it.

I'll report again after each of the next series are complete.

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