Folks seem to ALWAYS second guess Gerry Hunsicker's roster moves. For example, trading Scott Elarton, a young, strong pitcher for Pedro Astacio. Or trading another good young starter in Tony McKnight for the last part of Mike William's final contract year. But Gerry is under not only salary constraints. He's also under the pressure of the 40 Man Roster.

Sometimes, the Astros have to trim the roster from the top to make room for the guys coming up.

You know this.

You've see The Lion King.

It's the Circle of Life!

Trimming From the Top

As examples of the typical fan reaction to recent trades, I've been told the following:

"Astacio won't be around after this year, because he's got an option for $9 million next year and is really nothing more than a #3 starter. The Astros gave up 3 years of Elarton for 3 months of Astacio. Not at all a good trade."

and

"Williams is a nice pick-up if we can re-sign him. If not, he cost us McKnight."

A good farm system starts to squeeze you from below when you don't have enough 40-man roster slots to hold your 25 plus the good prospects that are Rule 5 eligible.

Last winter we lost Eric Ireland to this numbers game. The Cubs picked him up and traded him to the Oakland A's for Matt Stairs.

You have to start culling somewhere. That is the point of this structure as negotiated by the Player's Association. It forces the team's hands to do something with players or make them eligible for some other team.

To work the system, you have to decide who is not long term. Then you try to trade them for either someone you can use NOW or for someone that is young enough to buy you a bit of time on the minors roster.

That is the basis for this deal with Elarton and McKnight. Looking at the organization and the projected progressions, the Astros felt that neither were long term Astros in the show. So when can you get value for them versus play out their string here? With this pennant race, the Astros obviously feel that we have a chance to win THIS YEAR. So we make a move now for some immediate help. Whether Astacio or Williams are around next year is beside the point; we were going to have to cull the 40-man roster anyway, and we'd decided Elarton and McKnight were on that list. So spend them for help in THIS YEAR'S pennant race.

My Take on the End of Season 40 Man Roster

OK. So maybe this argument makes sense. But do we REALLY have to cull from the top THIS YEAR? Were Elarton and McKnight going to have a chance at the 40-man roster at the end of the season?

To answer that question, I've gone through my own analysis of the Astros organization and decided what I think the 40-man roster will look like after the end of the season.

Surprises Because They DID Make it

1. Mike Jackson
2. Ron Villone
3. Tony Eusebio

Surprises Because They DIDN'T Make it

1. Pedro Astacio
2. Dave Mlicki
3. Mike Williams
4. Bill Spiers
5. Glen Barker
6. Brian Powell
7. Mike Rosamond

Methodology

• I started with the current 40-Man roster.
• I did not take into account trading any current players. The possibilities there are endless. We could decide, for example, that we are going to trade Truby for a couple of guys that don't need 40-man roster protection. That would open a spot. And we give the third sacker slot to Morgan Ensberg next year.
• I marked all of the players that are either arbitration eligible or are free agents at the end of the season. And I included Pedro Astacio because I know we are not about to pick up his $9 million+ option.
• I decided which of these I wanted the Astros to re-sign. These went on the 40-man roster. My thought process went like this:
  1. Astacio. Too expensive. I'll find a spot for him if he'll come cheap enough. But I'm not betting on it.
  2. Bottenfield. Buh-bye.
  3. Jackson. I think he will come relatively cheap next year and he's good bullpen strength.
  4. Villone. Lefty. Bullpen strength. Can also start. 'Nuff said.
  5. Wagner. Most important off-season job is resigning Billy.
  6. Williams. Too early for me to commit. If he does well, someone will offer him a lot of money to close.
  7. Eusebio / Servais. I'll take only one. I picked Tony. Loyalty to Tony and to Shane.
  8. Castilla. Nails this year, but too expensive and we have Truby and Ensberg
  9. Spiers. Sorry Bill.
  10. Vizcaino. No room at the inn.
  11. Alou. I REALLY hope we resign him.
  12. Merced. See Vizcaino.

   

• I looked at all of the other incumbents and decided which of these I did not want to keep on the 40-man roster
  1. The only one I cut was Glen Barker. Glen is a two tool guy; speed and defense. And he doesn't use his speed well offensively. So he goes. Especially with Jason Lane and Eric Cole coming up.

• Next I went through the list of Rule 5-eligible minor leaguers and minor league free agents and made a list of those I felt possibly needed protecting. After the steps outlined above, I had 7 open spots. These are the NEW members of my 40-Man Roster:
  1. RHP Ryan Jamison.
  2. RHP Mike Naninni.
  3. RHP Rosario Rodrigo.
  4. RHP Travis Wade.
  5. OF Eric Cole.
  6. OF Jason Lane.

That's my Knuckleball. Try to hit it.

My 40 Man Roster Table

FA/Arb?	Protect/Keep?	40 #	INCUMBENTS
			PITCHERS (22)
y	n		Astacio, Pedro
y	n		Bottenfield, Kent
		1	Brocail, Doug
		2	Cruz, Nelson
		3	Dotel, Octavio
		4	Franklin, Wayne
		5	Hernandez, Carlos
y	y	6	Jackson, Mike
		7	Kessel, Kyle
		8	Lidge, Brad
		9	Linebrink, Scott
		10	Mann, Jim
		11	Miller, Greg
		12	Miller, Wade
y	n		Mlicki, Dave
		13	Oswalt, Roy
		14	Redding, Tim
		15	Reynolds, Shane
		16	Rodriguez, Wilfredo
y	y	17	Villone, Ron
y	y	18	Wagner, Billy
y	n		Williams, Mike
			CATCHERS (4)
		19	Ausmus, Brad
y	y	20	Eusebio, Tony
		21	Maldonado, Carlos
y	n		Servais, Scott
			INFIELDERS (11)
		22	Bagwell, Jeff
		23	Biggio, Craig
y	n		Castilla, Vinny
		24	Ensberg, Morgan
		25	Everett, Adam
		26	Ginter, Keith
		27	Lopez, Mendy
		28	Lugo, Julio
y	n		Spiers, Bill
		29	Truby, Chris
y	n		Vizcaino, Jose
			OUTFIELDERS (6)
y	y	30	Alou, Moises
			Barker, Glen
		31	Berkman, Lance
		32	Hidalgo, Richard
y	n		Merced, Orlando
		33	Ward, Daryle
			RULE 5 ELIGIBLE
			R5 PITCHERS
			Driskel, Travis
		34	Jamison, Ryan
		35	Nannini, Mike
			Powell, Brian
		36	Rodrigo, Rosario
		37	Wade, Travis
			R5 CATCHERS
		38	Buck, John
			R5 INFIELDERS
			R5 OUTFIELDERS
		39	Cole, Eric
		40	Lane, Jason
			Rosamond, Mike

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